The infections of the Covid-19 epidemic show initial signs of recovery in Italy, where Sicily reaches percentages from the yellow zone as regards hospitalizations.
The growth at national level of daily admissions to intensive care is slowing and the first signs of a slowdown in the growth of deaths, while the pace of the vaccination campaign is slowing down a lot.
This is what emerges from the analysis of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculus' M.
Picone ', of the National Research Council (Cnr).
"After stationing on a plateau for about ten days, the analysis of the weekly differences in the curve of total positives reveals a resumption of the infection in the last four days. To be confirmed with the data for the next few days", observes the mathematician. Still at the national level, he continues, "the slowdown in the growth of the average curve of daily admissions to intensive care units continues, which should reach its maximum in 5-7 days".
There are also "minimal initial signs of a slowdown in the growth of the average death curve at national level, which will have to be confirmed by the data for the next few days". At the regional level, the epidemiological data relating to Tuesday 24 August, the day to which the weekly monitoring on Friday refers, indicate that "despite the increase in official available places in the ordinary and intensive care wards, Sicily - notes Sebastiani - it is beyond the respective thresholds of 15% and 10% for occupancy of seats and therefore, strictly speaking, it should be declared a yellow zone on Friday 27 August, with effective entry into force on Monday 30 August ".
Values almost from the yellow zone for Sardinia, where the percentage of hospitalizations is 14% in ordinary wards and 11% in intensive care. In Calabria, meanwhile, the growth of posts occupied in ordinary and intensive care wards is slowing, with current values of approximately 15% and 6% respectively.
As for vaccination coverage (considered as a result of the ratio between total doses and double the population), it currently corresponds to 63% and in the age group between zero and 19 years it is 17%, "very low - observes the expert - in light of the start of teaching activities in about three weeks ". Sebastiani's data also indicate that in the last four weeks the weekly average of the number of vaccine doses administered per day has progressively decreased, passing from 485,000 to 400,000, then to 270,000 and 200,000. Prior to this decline, he notes, an average of 530,000 to 550,000 doses per day had been administered for six weeks. The current slowdown observes Sebastiani, "does not seem influenced now by the scarcity of available doses. Just think for example,that 4.2 million doses of Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine were available as of August 24, compared with 2.9 million people waiting for the second dose. "
