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World Climate Conference Cop26: How do scientists rate the Glasgow Pact?

2021-11-15T17:08:57.470Z


At the end of the 26th UN climate summit, opinions differed: an important success, some say - a bitter disappointment, others say. How do researchers rate the results?


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Members of Extinction Rebellion protest for more climate protection at the end of the climate summit

Photo: Peter Summers / Getty Images

The 26th UN climate conference, the Cop26 in Glasgow, has ended.

What remains of two weeks of discussions and negotiations are various initiatives, but above all the joint final declaration of the 200 states.

Environmental groups criticized the Glasgow Climate Pact as not going far enough, politicians spoke of "historic" decisions.

How do scientists rate the results of the summit?

“Glasgow was the first major test of the Paris Agreement.

That was passed.

Multilateralism is in difficult waters at the moment, but at least when it comes to climate protection, the countries of the world still seem to be coming together, "said Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, who is researching the change in human-environment systems at Berlin's Humboldt University at the Integrative Research Institute.

»The outstanding elements of the rules of the Paris Agreement on transparency and market mechanisms have been approved.

It was a matter of drilling very thick boards.

That succeeded. "

Whether Glasgow will be a success now depends crucially on whether the states actually follow their promises.

If we succeed in closing the gap in emissions reduction by 2030 a little further next year and providing sufficient financial resources for the developing countries, the summit could "be the starting shot for a decade of decisive action," Schleussner said.

Despite the weakening, this is a signal that fossil fuels are being phased out

In the opinion of Sonja Peterson from the Institute for the World Economy at Kiel University, successes can be found in the Glasgow final document.

»It is positive that the Cop26 is sending a signal in favor of phasing out fossil fuels, despite the weakening in the final document.

This signal is

reinforced

by several smaller international alliances - such as the

Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance

and the

Powering Past Coal Alliance

- ”she said.

It is also important that the focus is not only on reducing CO₂ emissions.

The agreements on methane are also an important sign.

And the agreements between the two largest emitters, the USA and China, would also give reason for hope for further steps in the future.

more on the subject

Global cooperation: Why we need a world climate parliamentA guest contribution by Dennis Tänzler

Joeri Rogelj from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London also expressed the feeling of ambivalence felt by many observers at the summit:

»

The Cop26 has achieved a historic achievement and at the same time has fallen short of the hopes and expectations of many.

When I think about it as a scientist and a citizen of this planet, I see reasons to be proud, to be hopeful and to be deeply concerned. "The progress made by the global community at the summit is" the best the world has to offer was ready to do at this point ”, but they were nowhere near enough.

"Glasgow has revived the 1.5 degree limit, but it is still in the intensive care unit," said Niklas Höhne, from Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

»New national climate targets and initiatives have taken us a small step forward.

But at this rate the 1.5-degree target is lost. "Even if all of Glasgow's new proposals were implemented, emissions in 2030 would still be almost twice as high as they would be for the 1.5-degree target should.

$ 100 billion a year won't be enough

Anke Herold also rated the financing commitments to the developing countries as positive. The scientist heads the independent Öko-Institut eV in Berlin. She said: “If you consider that the federal government in Germany made available 30 billion euros this year for the damage caused by the flooding in North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate, then it becomes clear that 100 billion US dollars for all developing countries for emission reduction, adaptation and climate damage the financing needs are certainly not yet sufficiently covered. «It will be difficult to monitor compliance with all commitments. It has now been agreed that the states should answer questions from the other states about the implementation of the resolutions every two years. »This means that in future there will be a process that will control implementation.However, no international agreement in the world can force an unwilling government to push through the phase-out from fossil fuels. These governments can only be pilloried symbolically in the future, ”said Herold.

"Overall, the new Glasgow rules on international emissions trading create a good basis, but they also have numerous loopholes." That said Lambert Schneider, who works as research coordinator for international climate policy at the Öko-Institut.

“It will now very much depend on whether and how countries will use the set of rules.

The rules can clearly be abused and undermine efforts to protect the climate.

But they also set a minimum standard that prevents each country from simply calculating its carbon footprint according to its own rules. "

more on the subject

Plateau in CO₂ emissions: Why the unstoppable increase in emissions has come to an endA guest contribution by Stefan Rahmstorf

"A spider silk lifeline"

Lukas Hermwille from the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy described the climate conference in Glasgow as the "high point of an ongoing process," which is why the past two weeks should not be assessed in isolation. "A lot has changed in the past two years." This is particularly clear when it comes to coal. “Some states - especially India - have tried with all their might to negotiate or weaken the end of coal that has been conjured up from the draft. But one milestone remains: for the first time ever, explicit reference is made to the end of coal in a UNFCCC document.The inserted weakenings - ›phase-down‹ instead of ›phase-out‹ - as well as the theoretical back door of using coal with technical separation of CO2 emissions are ultimately nothing more than a lifeline made of spider silk for coal. "

vki

Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2021-11-15

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