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Models from the Humboldt University show: Unvaccinated people are driving the fourth wave of the pandemic

2021-12-01T11:48:34.566Z


Unvaccinated people are involved in the transmission of the coronavirus in eight to nine out of ten cases. This is shown by mathematical models from the Humboldt University.


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Pandemic driver party

Photo: Rafael Yaghobzadeh / Getty Images

Almost a third of the population is still unvaccinated.

Although the group is significantly smaller than those with vaccination protection, most Covid-19 transmissions can be traced back to the unvaccinated.

"At least one unvaccinated person is involved in eight to nine out of ten infections," according to a new study by the Humboldt University.

The calculations based on a mathematical contagion model showed that an increase in the vaccination rate was "urgently necessary" in order to slow down the infection process.

The researchers worked with various model calculations.

With an assumed vaccination effectiveness of 72 percent in adults and 92 percent in children, 76 out of 100 infected people would be infected by an unvaccinated person.

51 of them would be unvaccinated themselves, 25 vaccinated.

"The proportion of people who are infected by people who have been vaccinated is considerably smaller," the researchers said.

Unvaccinated people are involved in 91 out of 100 infections.

In a second scenario, the scientists assumed a lower vaccination effect: 50 percent for those over 60 and 60 percent for younger people.

In 84 out of 100 cases, at least one unvaccinated person was involved in the infection.

Only a third was due to vaccinated people.

Reduce short-term contacts

“The dynamics of the pandemic are currently being driven to a large extent by the lack of or declining, less effective vaccination protection,” the researchers conclude.

The vaccination rate must therefore increase, both for the first and second vaccinations and for the booster.

"Without additional measures, no imminent improvement in the vaccination rate is to be expected, since the growth rate of the vaccination campaign has stagnated since June 2021," it continues.

30 percent of the unvaccinated are still hesitant, half of them do not want to vaccinate at all.

The advantages and disadvantages of compulsory vaccination should therefore be discussed.

Since vaccinations alone could not break the fourth wave, the researchers also recommend reducing human contact quickly and significantly.

Unvaccinated people aren't just fueling the pandemic, as the data shows.

They are also exposed to a significantly higher risk of becoming seriously ill, which is currently evident in the overburdened intensive care units.

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Source: spiegel

All tech articles on 2021-12-01

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