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Melting ice in Iceland
Photo: LUIGI MORBIDELLI / picture alliance / Zoonar
The Arctic is heating up faster than any other region of the world.
The ice is only half as thick as it was 130 years ago, and in summer it is only half as large as it was before.
In a few decades, it could also be raining more than it is snowing - much earlier than previously thought, scientists write in the journal Nature Communications.
This change will probably come decades earlier than previously calculated, according to the research team from the Canadian University of Manitoba and the US National Snow and Ice Data Center.
The reasons for this include global warming and the decline in sea ice.
"Animal world cannot adapt"
The change will be felt differently depending on the Arctic region and the season, predict the scientists on the basis of various climate data models.
For example, between 2050 and 2080 it could happen that in autumn it rains more than it snows.
This change had previously been predicted for 2070 to 2090.
If we succeed in slowing global warming, these changes in the Arctic could possibly be at least partially slowed down.
"The challenge we see in the Arctic today is that it is changing so rapidly that wildlife may not be able to adapt," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
"This is not only a problem for reindeer, caribou and musk ox, but also for the people in the north who depend on them."
Walruses, for example, are already getting lost in southern waters again and again because of the rising temperatures in the Arctic.
One animal recently made headlines around the world: it was discovered on a military submarine in the Netherlands.
Another walrus had been seen off the coast of France, Spain and Ireland.
According to scientists, it will only become clear in the next few years whether the ice in the Arctic can still be saved.
The region is about to trigger a tipping point.
Should the summer sea ice disappear completely, this would have far-reaching consequences for the earth systems and could further drive climate change.
Only in May were extremely high temperatures of more than 30 degrees in places measured in the Russian Arctic, while it was significantly cooler than normal in Central Europe.
The British meteorologist Scott Duncan called the temperatures in the Arctic "surprisingly high" at the time.
Consequences of Climate Change
"The special thing is that these temperatures are reached so early in the year," said Jörg Hartmann from the Alfred Wegener Institute at the time. Temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius were regularly reached in summer - although it was actually still too early for that. "We have known for some time that the Arctic is warming more and more quickly than the mid-latitudes," says Hartmann. "Records of this kind are to be expected and are inevitable for the next few years."
This is also confirmed by a report by the Arctic Council. The polar region has warmed three times faster than the rest of the planet since 1971. Between 1971 and 2019, the average annual temperature in the Arctic rose by 3.1 degrees Celsius, compared with one degree Celsius on Earth as a whole. The report was produced by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (Amap), a working group of the Arctic Council. The intergovernmental body includes Russia and the USA, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Iceland.
According to the report, temperatures in the Arctic could rise by 3.3 to 10 degrees by the end of the century, compared to the average between 1985 and 2014.
The effects on the entire ecosystem are huge.
The four million inhabitants of the region are also feeling the consequences of climate change more and more.
fww / dpa
