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Covid: Sebastiani (Cnr), Calabria almost in yellow and 4 regions are getting closer

2021-12-05T14:40:27.591Z

Braking of hospitalizations in Bolzano and Friuli, 'Situations that require a lot of attention' (ANSA)



Calabria is currently the region closest to the yellow zone due to the values ​​relating to hospitalizations in ordinary wards and intensive care, while Lombardy, Marche, Veneto and Liguria could reach yellow zone values ​​in the coming weeks.

This is indicated by the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation 'M. Picon', of the National Research Council (Cnr), based on epidemiological data from Civil Protection and on employment in hospitals provided by 'National Agency for Regional Health Services (Agenas).

"

Calabria

has exceeded the threshold of 10% of intensive care (it is about 11%) with a growth trend, while it is at 14.5% for the ordinary wards, where for 9 days it has undergone a sudden linear growth with a increase of approximately 0.39% per day. Consequently - observes the expert - by next Tuesday (the day to which the weekly monitoring of Friday usually refers) it is expected that it will be over the thresholds for the yellow zone ". 

As regards the other four regions approaching the yellow zone, "in

Lombardy

the hospitalizations in the ordinary wards are about 14%, increasing linearly in the last two weeks with an increase rate of about 0.30% per day. Consequently - Sebastiani observes - in the first days of next week it is expected that the 15% threshold will be exceeded ". Also in Lombardy, intensive care employment is around 8%, up linearly over the last two weeks and with an increase rate of around 0.30% per day. So "between the end of next week and the beginning of the next the region should cross the 10% threshold. In conclusion - he notes - on Tuesday 19th Lombardy should have the numbers from the yellow zone".

In the

Marche,

the occupation of intensive care wards is around 10.5%, with an increasing trend, and in the ordinary wards at around 10.5%, with a linear growth in the last ten days and a rate of around 0, 29% per day: "If the latter remained unchanged, it would lead in just over 15 days to over the 15% threshold, and therefore to yellow zone numbers".

In

Veneto

, intensive care employment is around 12%, with a growth trend, while it is 9.5% in the ordinary wards, with linear growth in the last two weeks and a rate of around 0.31% per day: "If it remained unchanged, it would carry over the 15% threshold in just under three weeks".

In

Liguria

, intensive care units are occupied for about 11.5%, with a growing trend, and ordinary wards for about 10%, with a linear growth trend in the last 15 days and an increase rate of about 0 , 26% per day. "If the latter remained unchanged, it would take the region beyond the limits of the yellow zone in about three weeks."

A slowdown in hospitalizations in Bolzano and Friuli, 'situations that require a lot of attention'


There is a tendency towards a slowdown in the growth, if not a decrease, in hospitalizations in Friuli Venezia Giulia and in the autonomous province of Bolzano, which could therefore avoid the entrance in the orange zone, while in Lazio there is a flattening of the curves of the shelters, Sebastiani still notes.


Signs of change in

Friuli Venezia Giulia

, currently in the yellow zone, with a slowdown in the growth of occupations in ordinary wards (to about 22%) and the slight decrease in those in intensive care (to about 14%). "It does not therefore seem - says the mathematician - that this region is moving towards the orange zone".

The situation is similar in the autonomous province of

Bolzano

, where in the last three days the curve of the ordinary wards shows signs of slowing growth. Currently hospitalizations are about 19% and about 13% respectively in the ordinary and intensive care wards. Finally, the autonomous province of Trento should be monitored, in which the occupation of the ordinary wards is around 10% and 9% in the intensive care ones, with a growth trend in both curves, albeit slow.

In

Lazio

, in the last 3-5 days both hospitalization curves show a flattening: to about 11% and about 10% respectively in the ordinary and intensive care wards.

This, Sebastiani observes, "will probably allow this region to avoid entering the yellow zone in the immediate future. Attention must however be high, given the rapid changes, such as that which recently occurred in Calabria".

It is holding back the growth of ICU admissions and deaths

 In the last week there has been a slowdown in the growth in admissions to intensive care and in deaths, continues Sebastiani. "While the curve of the percentage of molecular test positives and that of total positives continue to grow in a de facto linear way, that of daily admissions to intensive care and that of deaths show a slowing trend in growth in the last week, as put highlighted by the analysis of the weekly percentage differences - notes Sebastiani - The last two quantities are more important than the first two since they are not affected by the variations in the number of daily tests and involve the most serious forms of the disease ".


    The latter, he notes, "are able to contain well, but not totally, both for the current, large but limited value of vaccination coverage (about 75%) and for the presence of other factors in vaccinated subjects, such as for example comorbidities ".

The slowdown, the expert continues, "is however also confirmed at the positive level" on the basis of the "downward trend, on a two-week scale, in the number of provinces in which the incidence has increased by more than 40% in the last seven days compared to the previous seven days ".

Source: ansa

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