The Omicron variant has spread much faster than expected and has caused the contagion curve to rise, which has returned to having an exponential trend.
"The scenario has changed faster than one could imagine: the data we had available suggested that the diffusion of Omicron had just begun and everything indicated that it would become more extensive with the new year", physicist Giorgio Sestili told ANSA. , founder of the Facebook page 'Coronavirus-Scientific data and analysis'.
"The latest estimates available in the scientific literature indicate that the new variant could be between 5 and 6 times more contagious than the Delta," he adds. If Delta was just as more contagious than the original SarsCoV2 virus strain identified in Wuhan and on which the vaccines were designed, it can be inferred that the new variant may be about 10 times more contagious than the original virus.
“At the moment we can hypothesize a doubling time of about 2 days, based on the data from South Africa and those of a country that has a high sequencing activity, such as Denmark,” observes Sestili.
"Every 2 days we will therefore be able to see Omicron cases doubling on the total number of cases of SarsCoV2 infection and we already notice - he notes - that the new variant is becoming dominant in some European areas".
Gisaid, cases in Italy rose to 1.1%
The percentage of Covid-19 cases due to the Omicron variant has risen from 0.5% to 1.1% over five days: this is indicated by the sequences of the SarsCoV2 virus deposited by our country in the international database Gisaid .
On 15 December the sequences filed were 17 and currently there are 60.
