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Opponents of the corona policy in downtown Wangen im Allgäu: chess-playing pigeons
Photo: Felix Kästle / dpa
The tone in the relevant channels is getting shrill, the arguments more and more abstruse. Lateral thinkers and opponents of vaccination are becoming more radical, and at the same time the number of people taking to the streets is increasing. It may only be a few percent of the population. But they've retreated so deeply into their conspiracy-murmuring illusionary reality that one has to wonder how these people are ever going to find their way back to a halfway normal life. There are too many to simply ignore after the pandemic.
This week, however, a possible way out has revealed itself for a large part of the unconventional believers - which should feel very painful for the halfway rational audience. The background is that the Spanish Prime Minister spoke about a "flu" of Covid-19 despite record incidences and the corresponding intensive care unit occupancy. That means treating the pandemic like a flu outbreak. Spain has a vaccination rate of over 80 percent, which is even better than in Germany if you take into account the probable undercoverage in this country, and yet a number of experts are skeptical about "fluization". They see this as a downplaying of the virus and fear a possible collapse of the health system in view of the high number of infections.
In the usual way, actual experts do not play a role for cross-believers, they prefer to follow their Telegram prophets.
And here the reactions to the Spanish announcement give a good idea of what could happen in the future.
Not with the hard, often right-wing extremist core of the radicalized, but with the many followers.
Those who don't long for an overthrow quite so violently, but for their own normality.
"Back when we were in the resistance!"
An iconic Internet comment probably stems from an Amazon review from 2005, and has varied since then. A discussion with (creationist) science deniers is “like playing chess with a pigeon: it knocks over the pawns, poops on the board and then flies back to its crush to celebrate its victory.” Which leads directly to lateral thinkers and anti-vaccinationists who circulated slogans such as "Spain falls!" in their social media circles this week, accompanied by rising howls of triumph. The lateral thinkers are facing an overwhelming, almost glittering gold victory, modeled on the dove playing chess.
The coming story is as follows: If at some point in Germany the measures are reduced to a minimum, the lateral thinkers will not interpret this as a result of the joint effort and modern medicine between vaccination and treatment. But as their own victory - finally the state has buckled in front of us! They will go on to claim that Corona has always been little more than a flu (if it even existed!) and that they've just gotten their way. Because you just couldn't ignore their "walks" anymore. They will even demand gratitude from the rest of the population because the lifting of the measures was of course their achievement. Because they were able to prevent the federal government's attempt to abolish democracy via a corona alibi with their great protest.Anyone who camps so far away from reality does not need any proof. Especially not for your own heroic deeds.
As I said, hard to bear - and yet, in a way, good news. Because the imaginary victory almost enables the freaked out to return to a normal life in which they no longer have to bear the burden of resisting Bill Gates. A part of the population then still lives in a permanent phantasm, which, however, is no longer related to the present but to the past. Hundreds of thousands of sometimes violent "walkers" are turning into corona-nostalgic veterans: "Back when we were in the resistance!" After all, it's a reasonably face-saving return to a, well, new normality.
But this new normality could lead to a new, seemingly absurd situation. The starting point is the statement by Christian Drosten in an interview with the Tagesspiegel: “The virus must spread, but on the basis of vaccination protection that is anchored in the general population. The weakened infection on the basis of vaccination is something like a moving train that you jump on. At some point you have to jump on it, otherwise you won't get any further. The good news is: At the moment, the train is moving pleasantly slowly, because Omikron's disease is less severe.«
According to Drosten, the path to endemic disease (also known as flu means nothing else) is characterized by widespread infection, which, by the way, he has been suggesting for a long time. What makes the difference is how great the chance of a severe or even fatal course of Covid-19 is, and vaccination is crucial for that. However, it is now clear that vaccination protection decreases over time.
At some point those who have been vaccinated will ask when the best time for an infection is actually for them. Four weeks after the boosters? Eight? As long as a reasonably mild virus variant is still rampant with Omikron? After the fourth vaccination? Three weeks before annual leave? In any case, the time should be before next autumn when experts expect a new wave – possibly with a new variant – because too many people are still unvaccinated. Being ill at the same time as many others is not a particularly appealing prospect.
It may be that some of the vaccinated people celebrate “corona parties” in order to time their infection as best as possible.
It is much more likely, however, that at some point the willingness to take risks of those vaccinated will increase dramatically and their willingness to be considerate will dwindle just as dramatically.
For example, when it is clear that with the omicron adaptation vaccination in the body, the chance of a severe course is negligible.
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Sasha Lobo
Reality shock: Ten lessons from the present
Publisher: Kiepenheuer&Witsch
Number of pages: 400 pages
Publisher: Kiepenheuer&Witsch
Number of pages: 400 pages
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The patience of the vaccinated is a commodity that is currently being used very lavishly by politicians and lateral thinkers.
But she is finite.
If it is used up by a sufficient number of people, the understanding for voluntarily unvaccinated sick people sinks to a minimum.
If it still exists at all.
And there is hardly any willingness to accept serious restrictions in everyday life: Masks are compulsory indoors, but that's probably about it.
Then all you need is a virus variant, let's call it Sigma, which can be easily imagined for next autumn based on the previous mutations: extremely contagious, often with a severe course in unvaccinated people, and almost always mild courses in those who have been vaccinated.
After the current measures are lifted in the summer, the lateral thinkers will probably believe that they have won.
»Querdenker-Sieg« then becomes the new definition of the Pyrrhic victory.
Many will never see him again.
But even tens of thousands of deaths in their own, unvaccinated ranks will not convince the lateral thinkers and opponents of vaccination that their path was wrong.
And is.
And stays.
