The curve of the Covid-19 epidemic is in different phases in the Italian provinces and, among those that had exceeded the peak in recent days, there are signs of an increase while others are decreasing, in still others the descent has suffered a beat of arrest and a phase of stasis is detected, while in some the peak has not been reached and the growth continues: it is a very heterogeneous map, the one that emerges from the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for Calculus Applications' M. Picone ', of the National Research Council (Cnr).
The analysis shows that they have exceeded the peak and
are decreasing
16 provinces (Cosenza, Vibo Valentia, Avellino, Benevento, Caserta, Naples, Salerno, Ferrara, Rieti, Sondrio, Campobasso, Sassari, South Sardinia, Catania, Rovigo, Verbano Cusio Ossola); downhill, but weakly, also Crotone and Piacenza. 17 other provinces that have crossed the peak
are in
decline
(Chieti, Bergamo, Como, Lecco, Lodi, Milan, Monza and Brianza, Pavia, Varese, Agrigento, Caltanissetta, Palermo, Syracuse, Arezzo, Florence, Massa Carrara, Terni ).
After having crossed the peak and having had a braked descent, 17 provinces are in a
phase of stasis
(Catanzaro, Rimini, Genoa, Imperia, La Spezia, Savona, Brescia, Cremona, Enna, Ragusa, Trapani, Lucca, Pisa, Pistoia, Prato, Siena and Aosta).
After having passed the peak and having had a braked descent,
the curve is climbing
in four provinces (Potenza, Viterbo, Messina, Perugia).
After reaching a plateau,
the province of Rome is
growing ;
weak growth
are the provinces of Reggio Emilia and Frosinone.
After a slowdown in growth, 11 provinces have reached a
plateau
(L'Aquila, Pescara, Teramo, Bologna, Forlì-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Ravenna, Latina, Asti and Nuoro). 5 provinces (
Isernia
, Alessandria, Cuneo, Novara, Vercelli)
have almost reached their peak
. In a phase of
slowed growth
20 provinces (Bolzano, Reggio Calabria, Udine, Ancona, Ascoli Piceno, Fermo, Macerata, Pesaro and Urbino, Biella, Turin, Bari, Barletta-Andria-Trani, Brindisi, Foggia, Lecce, Taranto, Cagliari, Belluno, Venice, Verona ).
Trento is in a phase of
weak growth
, while there is an
abrupt growth
in Matera and Oristano.
6 provinces
are
growing linearly (Mantua, Grosseto, Livorno, Padua, Treviso, Vicenza).
Finally
, Gorizia, Pordenone and Trieste are in a phase of
accelerated growth .
