Enlarge image
Rapid test at a corona test point in Hesse
Photo: Sebastian Gollnow / dpa
The risk of contracting the coronavirus has never been greater than it is now.
The omicron variant only needed around two months for its conquest – this includes the first known cases in Africa at the beginning of November up to the time when the mutant was the predominant variant in Germany according to official information.
This gives an idea of how potent omicron is as a pathogen.
In view of this infectiousness, escape seems impossible.
Because the course of the disease in the omicron variant is usually milder, an infection appears less dangerous.
So why should it be prevented at all costs?
After all, more and more people who have the virus behind them are increasing immunity in the population.
So can we do without the protective measures?
It's not that easy.
Omicron should not be compared to a harmless cold - even if the expected courses could be milder for many people than with the Delta variant. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also called for the omicron variant to be taken seriously. The comparison with a normal cold is not correct, according to WHO corona expert Maria Van Kerkhove. An infection can happen like this, but it doesn't have to.
A study shows that the risk of having to go to the hospital with Omikron is reduced by more than half compared to Delta in all age groups.
In addition, patients with Omikron need to be ventilated less often, are in the intensive care unit less often and spend an average of three or four days less in the hospital.
According to general assessment, severe Covid courses are those in which the patients have to be admitted to the hospital.
In addition, those affected must not suffer from shortness of breath and the oxygen saturation in the blood must be above a certain value, according to the head of virology at Cologne University Hospital, Florian Klein.
The personal risk of young, healthy, boosted people for severe courses is considered to be very low.
Nevertheless, there are a few points against letting the omicron wave run unchecked through the population:
There is uncertainty among experts when assessing the long-term consequences of the virus.
According to the infectiologist Jana Schroeder from the Mathias-Spital Foundation in Rheine, the data situation is opaque, especially for Omicron.
The risk of long covid is very difficult to assess and there is a risk that consequential covid damage will increase in the end.
Your own infection may be mild, but overall an explosion in the number of infections can put a massive strain on the healthcare system and other areas of critical infrastructure.
Having Corona under control also means being able to adequately care for patients with other diseases, says Schroeder.
“If the number of cases is very high, many people are sick at the same time.
Of course, this also includes people who belong to the critical infrastructure,” adds Klein.
Clinics or companies in the energy and water industry can get into difficulties as a result.
If you protect yourself from an infection, this also indirectly helps people who (so far) have not been able to protect themselves adequately through vaccination.
Virologist Klein first and foremost mentions children and people whose immune system is suppressed.
But also older people who have not yet been vaccinated.
The Munich virologist Oliver Keppler also warned in an interview with ARD against letting the wave pass.
"Omicron is not a mild pathogen," says Keppler, referring to data from the USA or Great Britain.
In the USA in particular, new admissions to hospitals due to the omicron wave are "higher than ever during the pandemic".
Around 2,000 patients are transferred to intensive care units there every day.
Vaccination still offers good protection.
Because it provides the kind of immunity that promises the lowest risk for the general population.
Klein sees it that way too.
»Vaccination is the most important tool.
It's very lucky that we have them," he says.
According to the virologist, infections cannot be completely avoided at the moment.
But it is important to buy time.
The flatter the omicron wave remains, the better the healthcare system can cope with it.
It also gives more people time to get vaccinated and boosted.
And the well-known measures also work against Omikron: reduce contacts and wear an FFP2 mask in rooms.
So it is very likely that the previously lower dynamics of the omicron wave in Germany compared to Great Britain or Denmark, for example, can also be attributed to these measures in this country, he says.
Worse virus variants not excluded
The virologist Christian Drosten draws attention to another factor.
Accordingly, it is by no means certain that the virus will continue to cause predominantly mild courses.
Because it continues to change, and possibly not for the better.
If Sars-CoV-2 changes, a variant can also arise that is a recombination of omicron and delta, according to the expert from the Berlin Charité on Deutschlandfunk.
A variant possessing the omicron virus spike protein, which can partially bypass the population's immune protection, and the rest of the blueprint representing the delta virus genome, could combine the virus' strongest properties.
"One has to fear at the moment that something like this could happen," said Drosten.
This is because the recombination of viruses can result in both a weaker variant and a variant that has more devastating effects on the disease.
Therefore, the strategy of a controlled infection, after the completion of which most people are immune, is a risky game.
If a more disease-causing virus emerges, it can again become the dominant variant within a few weeks.
joe/dpa
