The incidence of Covid-19 cases has increased in just over two thirds of the 107 Italian provinces and, among these, in a few days the provinces in which the incidence has grown by at least 10% have gone from 9 to 43. .
This is indicated by the analysis of the data relating to the incidence of positives to molecular and antigenic tests added together, updated to 9 March, elaborated by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculus 'M. Picone', of the National Council of Research (Cnr).
"The number of provinces for which the analysis of weekly differences shows a growth trend increases from 9 to 43 and whose incidence value in the last seven days is at least 10% higher than that of the previous seven days" , Sebastiani observes.
“The provinces - adds the expert - are for the most part grouped into neighboring clusters, two of which are more numerous: the first includes the provinces of Tuscany, Umbria, Marche and Lazio;
the other provinces of Lazio, Campania, Puglia, Lucania and Calabria.
Considering all the provinces in which the incidence is increasing, without any minimum threshold, a total of about two thirds of all 107 provinces is reached ”.
"It should be noted that, among the 43 provinces, half of the 32 provinces that were growing exponentially in the last weeks of 2021 are included, always located along the backbone of the country, from Lecco to Lecce. This suggests that probably there is a common factor that induces long-distance diffusion. The sequencing data could clarify whether, as happened at the end of 2021, a new variant is underway. "
Below is the percentage increase and the incidence value per 100,000 inhabitants in the last seven days in the 43 provinces where the growth is greatest:
Cosenza (80%, 650), Catanzaro (76%, 390) Perugia (56%, 880), Sassari (53%, 720), Agrigento (48%, 960), Benevento (44% 650), Trapani (44% , 850), Grosseto (43%, 790), Vibo Valentia (40%, 970), Matera (36%, 770), Avellino (33%, 540), Aosta (33%, 230), Massa Carrara (29% , 580), Crotone (29%, 800), Bari (28%, 580), Ascoli Piceno (28%, 860), Lecce (25%, 1,050), Terni (25%, 730), Lucca (25%, 690), Trieste (25%, 490), Pisa (23%, 470), Bolzano (22%, 710), Caserta (22%, 570), Latina (21%, 620), Livorno (21%, 610) , Ragusa (20%, 860), Treviso (18%, 480), Frosinone (16%, 590), Florence (16%, 380), Vercelli (16%, 290), Caltanissetta (15%, 650), Barletta -Andria-Trani (15%, 490), Lecco (14%, 240), Cagliari (14%, 520), Venice (13%, 630), Pesaro and Urbino (13%, 470), Piacenza (13%, 230), Brindisi (13%, 510), Ancona (12%, 670), Rieti (12%, 620), Siena (12%, 730),Como (11%, 320), Milan (10%, 320).
