The hospitalization curve for Covid-19 in ordinary wards is in a phase of slowed growth and is expected to reach a peak by the end of the week, while a heterogeneous situation is observed in the regions;
on the other hand, the curves of daily admissions to intensive care and deaths continue to rise.
The peak of the circulation of the virus was instead reached two weeks ago.
This is indicated by the analyzes of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation 'M.Picone', of the National Research Council (Cnr).
“The analysis of the weekly differences in the ordinary department employment curve shows that we are at around 16% in slowed growth and the average curve is expected to peak by the end of this week and then start to decline.
The data for the next few days will allow a precise location of the peak ”, Sebastiani observes.
"In the second half of two weeks ago - continues the expert - a peak, albeit not very marked, was reached in the circulation of the virus, both in terms of the average curve of the incidence of molecular positives and antigenic together, and for the percentage of molecular positive.
The curves of daily admissions to intensive care and deaths are growing ".
At a regional level "the situation is heterogeneous", he observes, with regions where the employment of ordinary departments falls, such as Basilicata and Calabria, while "others have stopped growing and are in a stationary phase or are about to start to decline like Campania, Lazio, Liguria and Marche ".
Other regions are still on the rise, such as Abruzzo, Emilia Romagna, Lombardy, Puglia, Sicily, Molise, Tuscany and Veneto (the last four with fluctuations), the autonomous province of Trento and Friuli Venezia Giulia (the last two in slow growth), Valle of Aosta and Umbria.
It is important to underline the different behavior of Umbria and Calabria where the current phase of epidemic expansion began first in Italy.
"In about seven days - concludes Sebastiani - we will be able to observe whether the release of some containment measures of the epidemic started on April 1st, combined with the persistence of low temperatures and the spread in our country, has affected the spread of the virus of any sub-variants of Omicron ".
