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Aculeo Lagoon in Chile: The country recently experienced the worst drought in its history
Photo: Matias Basualdo / dpa
About 1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial level of the years 1850 to 1900: So far, 2016 holds the record for the highest average temperature recorded worldwide.
But according to a new forecast, that could soon change.
The World Weather Organization (WMO) in Geneva reports that the global average temperature of a single year between 2022 and 2026 could be more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level for the first time.
In 2015 it was still considered practically impossible that the 1.5 degree mark would be reached within five years.
That year, the world community agreed in the Paris climate agreement to limit permanent warming to well below two degrees and if possible below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The new forecast shows how difficult it is to achieve the second goal in particular.
Because now the WMO says: The probability that in the five-year period from 2022 to 2026 there will be a temperature increase of more than 1.5 degrees for at least one year is almost 50 percent.
But that doesn't mean, and that's important, that the 1.5-degree mark will be permanently exceeded in this case - the value could be lower again in the following years, explained the WMO.
“The figure of 1.5°C is not a random statistic.
Rather, it is an indicator of the point at which climate impacts are becoming increasingly harmful to people and the entire planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
The Paris climate agreement aims to limit global warming in the long term.
And would be quite feasible, with great effort.
According to the WMO report, there is currently only a 10 percent chance that the five-year average of global warming will already exceed the 1.5 degree threshold.
The problem: On average, experts expect temperatures to continue to rise in the coming years.
According to the WMO, there is a 93 percent chance that the 2016 record will be broken within the next five years.
It is just as likely that the average temperature over the five-year period 2022-2026 will be higher than in the previous five years.
The calculations were made by the British Met Office for the United Nations.
The report from Geneva comes halfway between the last world climate conference COP26 in Glasgow and the next conference COP27 in Egypt.
Around 30,000 participants, including 120 heads of state and government, are expected in the seaside resort of Sharm al-Sheikh in November.
Halfway through the COP, observers draw a sobering conclusion on climate protection, also because of the war in Ukraine.
“As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise”
Last year, the global average temperature was 1.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels, according to the WMO's preliminary climate report.
The WMO will publish the final value on May 18th.
The British meteorologists assume that the average temperature in this and the next four years will be between 1.1 and 1.7 degrees above the pre-industrial level.
India and Pakistan recently had to deal with a severe heat wave.
For this year, the meteorologists expect that it will be drier in south-western Europe and south-western North America than the average for the years 1991 to 2020. In contrast, it is likely to be wetter in northern Europe, the Sahel zone, north-eastern Brazil and Australia.
"As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise," said WMO chief Taalas.
“At the same time, our oceans will continue to warm and acidify, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise, and our weather will become more extreme.”
chs/dpa
