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Karl Lauterbach (centre) with Christian Drosten (left) and Lothar Wieler
Photo: Stefan Boness/Ipon / imago images/IPON
Nobody really wants to have anything to do with the topic of Corona right now.
The incidences are falling, the load on the intensive care units is lower than expected and those who wear a mask are stared at in some places as if they had not understood the matter of freedom.
But these days the federal government has to deal with how it wants to get people through the autumn.
Because then the pandemic situation could no longer be quite so rosy.
The problem: Nobody really knows how powerful Corona will come back then.
Even experts hardly dare to make any firm forecasts.
Nevertheless, Chancellor Olaf Scholz invited the Corona Expert Council to a dinner.
For the first time, the aerosols from the 19 experts mixed with those from Scholz and Lauterbach.
Scholz invited to the Chancellery at 6 p.m.
It was supposed to be a relaxed round, without an agenda and subsequent press conference.
It was not known in advance whether corona measures were also discussed in addition to the food.
According to reports, the experts should not have prepared a statement.
They want to take their time with their suggestions for the fall.
New virus variants in autumn?
From their past statements, however, it is clear what the conversation might have been:
Many experts fear that new virus variants, such as those that have recently reappeared in South Africa and New York, in combination with declining vaccination protection, will lead to a new wave in the autumn.
It is possible that after the infestation with Omicron, the more dangerous Delta variant could also return, or a combination of Delta and Omicron could emerge that is highly contagious and dangerous at the same time.
The experts wrote in their eighth statement at the beginning of March that “there could be a significant number of infections again”.
It is difficult to predict how virulent a new virus variant will be, i.e. whether it will cause more or less severe disease progression than the previous one.
About the so-called virulence, says Christian Drosten, Director of the Institute for Virology at the Berlin Charité, "a few mutations can decide, so that it can always go up and down".
According to the expert council, a renewed high burden on the health system in the coming autumn and winter cannot be ruled out.
It is therefore crucial to be able to react quickly in autumn and winter, if necessary.
"Against this background, emergency strategies should be developed and implementable at any time for successful pandemic control," says the eighth statement.
"Elementary," according to the expert council, is the "early detection of significant changes in the dynamics of infection," for example by monitoring random samples, as is also the case with influenza.
Not only the age-dependent incidence is also important in order to recognize a possible overload of the health system at an early stage.
The daily updated nationwide recording of age-related hospitalization and intensive care bed occupancy, including the immunity status of the patients, should “already be prepared now” in order to be able to precisely assess the situation in autumn and winter, not only for Covid-19, but also for influenza and other serious respiratory diseases. .
Biontech's new omicron vaccine
The expert council also wrote in mid-February that masks indoors and regular testing, for example in retirement homes, would probably “be necessary again” in autumn and winter.
Vaccination, however, remains “the decisive instrument in combating the pandemic”.
It was about “striving for the most complete immunity possible”.
However, it is still unclear how this is to succeed after the failure of compulsory vaccination.
The results of a study by the vaccine manufacturer Biontech, in which the effectiveness of an omicron vaccine and a combination vaccine are compared with the effectiveness of the previous Biontech vaccines on a total of more than 2100 participants, are awaited with excitement.
As soon as the results are available in the coming weeks, the company says they will be passed on to the regulatory authorities.
Scholz had recently held back on the subject of Corona.
Although he spoke out in favor of compulsory vaccination from the age of 18, when this was not decided, he showed little emotion.
During the discussion about the continuation of protective measures, he obviously did not give Lauterbach the backing that would have been necessary to assert himself against Justice Minister Marco Buschmann from the FDP.
It ended up with a weak regulation that many states were very unhappy about and which some experts thought was a bad joke.
He may have heard some criticism from the members of the Expert Council over dinner tonight.
Maybe he will really make Corona a top priority again afterwards.
