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M777 howitzer fired in Japan
Photo: U.S. Marines / ZUMA Wire / IMAGO
Even after more than a hundred days of war and heavy losses: the arsenal of heavy weapons does not seem to have been exhausted by a long shot.
At least on the Russian side.
Pictures recently showed Russian T-80 tanks on an endless train - allegedly taken in Moscow Oblast.
They may soon be rolling through Ukraine.
The intended use cannot be checked, but it is clear that the Ukrainian army in Donbass is currently having a particularly difficult time.
When defending their territory, the units are faced with massive Russian superiority, and the Ukrainians are particularly concerned about the firepower of the artillery.
A Rolling Stone war reporter recently counted nearly 500 rockets fired at a single position in a short space of time—an enormous amount.
According to the government, Ukraine suffers daily casualties from these attacks, with up to 100 dead.
But instead of responding to the Russian artillery attacks with rapid return fire, the hands of the soldiers are tied - there is not only a lack of guns, but also of ammunition.
The demand for heavy weapons from the West is therefore repeated incessantly in Ukraine and has become something of a mantra of the war.
Biggest wish list to date
Most recently, Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, presented an impressive wish list.
To end the war, his country needs 1000 155mm howitzers, 300 multiple rocket launchers, 500 main battle tanks, 2000 armored vehicles and 1000 drones.
These are enormous numbers that Podolyak is calling out.
For comparison: the USA has so far promised the delivery of 108 M777 howitzers with the same caliber, plus 200,000 rounds of ammunition.
Canada and Australia also want to deliver ten of these "Triple Seven" together.
In total, there are almost 300 artillery systems that are to be made available for Kyiv from the west.
There is also a significant discrepancy between the promised multiple rocket launchers and the current demands from Kyiv.
Only about 50 are to be delivered.
270 tanks are firmly promised - that's also far from the required 500.
The background to Podolyak's numbers is unclear.
But regardless of the fact that many heavy weapons have so far only been promised and not delivered, the demands are likely to exceed the capabilities of many NATO members, in some cases significantly.
Not even the US Army could probably cover this material requirement
To put this into context: The Bundeswehr itself only has just over 250 active Leopard 2s, the main battle tanks of the German armed forces.
The multiple rocket launchers also include the MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket Systems), some of which are planned to go to Ukraine from the USA and Great Britain.
But the required 300 pieces would make up about half of the US stock.
The 1000 howitzers roughly correspond to the entire US arsenal.
The Pentagon is said to have more than 500 of the “Triple Seven”.
If the West decides to deliver these quantities, it will only be possible through joint efforts.
Not even the US Army would be willing to supply so many heavy weapons.
In addition: Compared to last week, the list of armaments demanded by Kyiv has lengthened significantly.
Oleksiy Arestovych, another adviser to Zelenskyj, called for 60 rocket launchers at the time.
They would be enough to repel the Russian invaders.
So where do these high demands come from?
On the one hand, the nerves in Kyiv should be on edge given the high losses.
But the tweet may also have tactical reasons.
On Wednesday, under the chairmanship of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the NATO defense ministers will meet at a special meeting in Brussels - where further arms deliveries will also be discussed.
Possibly Podolyak's long wish list should serve as a bargaining chip at this meeting.
Actual needs are likely to be lower
The more far-reaching war goals formulated by President Zelenskyj could also be a motive.
He now clearly expressed his willingness to reconquer the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia had annexed in 2014.
If the Ukrainian army receives appropriate weapons, they can liberate the territory, it said.
At least some military analysts assume that Ukraine's actual needs are below the current figures.
In this respect, Podolyak's demand is addressed more to international politics and less to the military.
However, such a tactical calculation when compiling weapon wish lists would not be without risk and could be at the expense of confidence in the information provided by Ukraine.
What is certain, however, is that the armaments promised by the West so far will not be sufficient to enable Ukraine to defend its territory in the long term.
It is therefore understandable that Ukraine is registering a significantly higher demand.
And if you disregard the meager German stocks, there is still a lot of potential internationally. The USA alone has thousands of M1 Abrams battle tanks.
