By
2100
, the
Mediterranean
sea
level
could rise
by 60 to 100 centimeters
due to global warming:
more than 38,000
square kilometers of coastline
(an area almost equal to that of Switzerland) at risk, where submerged areas will increase and will be amplified the effects of
storm surges
and
tsunamis
with the consequent risk of marine flooding.
This is what emerges from the conference presenting the final results of
the Savemedcoasts-2 European project
(Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mediterranean Coasts-2), conducted by an international consortium coordinated by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (Ingv).
The Savemedcoasts-2 project
"Between 2013 and 2021, the global average sea level increased by about
4.5 millimeters per year
, and this increase is accelerating, even in the Mediterranean", observes Marco Anzidei, researcher at Ingv and coordinator of the project.
"The expected increases vary from place to place, with minimum values ranging from about 65 centimeters, where the coasts are not subject to subsidence (lowering of the ground) or geological movements, up to well over one meter".
Savemedcoasts-2 experts elaborated these estimates through
satellite data
analyzes ,
geophysical monitoring networks
and
aircraft lasers
, cross -referenced with
climate data
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
In particular, they considered six case studies corresponding to six areas at risk: the
delta of the Ebro river
in Spain, the
lagoon of Venice
and the area of
Metaponto
in Italy, the plain of
Chalastra
in Greece, the
delta of the river Rhone
in France and the
Nile River Delta
in Egypt.
The simulation relating to the coasts of the Mediterranean
In
Venice
, the average sea level
could rise by 72 centimeters
: this is equivalent to saying that Piazza San Marco could be almost permanently flooded in the absence of the Mose.
The bulkheads will therefore have to rise more and more often, also to protect the lagoon, where the scenarios are even more gloomy: the island of Sant'Erasmo, for example, risks being completely submerged.
According to the calculations of experts, in
the most favorable climatic scenario
, by 2100 the increase in the average sea level in Venice could reach
45 centimeters
.
In
the most pessimistic scenario
, however, it could rise
up to 84 centimeters
compared to that of 2005.
"The whole lagoon is at risk - affirms Marco Anzidei - even if the island of Venice may suffer slightly less effects due to its lower subsidence", with a lowering of the ground which is on average equal to about 1.5 millimeters per year.
"Thanks to satellite data we were able to measure the subsidence speed with millimeter precision, estimating the rise of the seas in the different climate scenarios of the IPCC".
Not only Venice: in Italy, rising sea also threatens other coasts such as the Ionian coast of
Metaponto
, where the average level could rise to a maximum of 80 centimeters by 2100 due to global warming.
Over 500 hectares of land would thus be exposed to the risk of flooding due to river flooding and storm surges.
"The Basento area has a strong coastal erosion: the hinterland, which is located behind a band of dunes, is lower than the sea level: this means that if the sea were to rise above this barrier, it could flood several square kilometers of coast ", continues Marco Anzidei of Ingv.
"The coastal strip here is very long and we cannot think of protecting it by building barriers like the Mose in Venice: for this we need a strong reduction of greenhouse gases, a global strategy that starts from our daily behaviors. Precisely to increase this awareness, the project Savemedcoasts-2 has engaged in an intense dissemination activity starting from schools: even today in school books we talk about climate change referring to drought and desertification,
