By 2065 the melting of the Arctic ice will likely give way to new trade routes for shipping, with two very important consequences: it will decrease pollution, as ships will be able to make more use of the shorter routes that pass near the North Pole. instead of the longer ones that cross the Suez and Panama canals, and Russia's control over transport that takes place near its coasts will weaken, based on what is enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos).
The forecast is the result of a study led by the American Brown University and published in the journal of the United States Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Unclos gives Arctic coastal states greater authority over maritime trade: Article 234 stipulates that countries whose coasts are close to Arctic sea routes have the power to regulate the traffic of these routes, as long as the area remains covered by ice. for most of the year.
Russia has harnessed this power by imposing heavy regulation on all ships transiting the North Sea - one of the reasons why major shipping companies often prefer to use the Suez and Panama canals, whose trade routes are longer, but much easier and cheaper.
The progressive melting of the ice will therefore lead to a weakening of the control exercised by the country.
First, if the area is no longer covered by ice for most of the year, Russia will no longer be able to invoke Article 234. Secondly, the disappearance of large ice areas could also open new routes in water. international, out of Russian influence.
In addition, the arctic routes allow a reduction in journeys ranging from 14 to 20 days of navigation less: this means that the companies could reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by about 24%, also saving time and money.
