In the next twenty years, in a medium-sized city, a shared-ownership car will replace ten privately-owned cars, with purely urban use.
Mobility based on large vehicles powered by fossil fuels, owned and driven by people, will be replaced by mobility characterized by light, electric, shared and algorithm-driven vehicles.
This is what a study conducted by the Politecnico di Milano argues, based on the analysis of the movements of Italian cars, recorded through telematic boxes on a representative sample equal to 10% of vehicles in circulation.
The analysis was presented in Milan at the Feltrinelli Foundation during the first forum of The Urban Mobility Council, the Mobility Think Tank, promoted by the Unipol Group with the patronage of the MITE and the EU Commission.
In the future, the study notes, 20% of private cars in our cities could easily be replaced by semi-autonomous shared cars, with a replacement ratio of about 1 to 10. Even today, even without the massive use of columns, 20% of the cars in circulation could be replaced by electric cars, without prejudice to the owner due to limited autonomy or increase in costs.
The functional aspect will also be separated - mainly satisfied by self-driving robotaxis - and the emotional aspect, associated with a valuable niche of cars that will remain human-driven and privately owned.
"The big bang of this revolution - said Sergio Savaresi, Professor of Automation in Vehicles at the Politecnico di Milano - will be driver automation that will push towards service mobility which in turn will generate the flow of electrification completion. We must identify the fastest and cheapest development guidelines to facilitate this transition, both with traditional vehicles and with self-driving vehicles ".