Although the Covid-19 epidemic is now relegated to the background, it has not disappeared, as recalled in its first opinion by the Committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks (Covars) .
Epidemic situation, emergence of variants, vaccination, prospects for new treatments, actions to be implemented... This scientific council 2.0, created by decree last July and whose missions are extended to all infectious risks and pollutants, has just made a inventory a few weeks before the great crossover of winter viruses.
The objective is clear: to act now so as not to be overwhelmed by a virus that we now know how to contain.
Especially since with the relaxation of barrier gestures,
“
Since the beginning of September, with the start of the school year, we have seen a steady increase in cases linked to the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, but for the past two weeks we have the impression that we have reached the peak of this new wave
” , said Professor Fabrice Carrat, an epidemiologist member of Covars, during a press conference on Monday.
The epidemic rebound that we are currently experiencing - the 8th - is of "
moderate
" intensity because its severity has been "
damped by the collective immunity acquired by vaccinations and previous exposures to the virus
“, notes the Covars in its opinion.
But the weight of the epidemic on the hospital system is far from derisory: just over 20,000 people are currently hospitalized, including a thousand in intensive care, and around 80 deaths are recorded daily, according to data from Public Health. France.
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Encouraging signs but which must be tempered
Even if the indicators show that the situation is improving, scientists want to remain cautious at this stage.
“It is unclear how seasonal factors will act on the dynamics of the epidemic over the next few months and then there is a risk of new immune escape variants emerging.
So it is not impossible that in the medium term, there could again be an increase in the epidemic incidence and therefore a 9th wave
, ”explained Professor Carrat.
Nothing surprising for this virus which, since its emergence, has continued to evolve in order to spread better.
The BQ.1.1 variant “is in the process of replacing BA.5” and “has mutations that could allow it to partially escape pre-existing immune defenses”.
Pr Bruno Lina, infectiologist, member of Covars.
The emergence of a new, even more powerful variant could happen sooner than we think.
Since the end of September, a little brother of BA.5, by the name of BQ.1.1, has been gaining ground in France but also throughout Europe.
It even already represents half of the cases in Ile-de-France.
“
It is replacing BA.5
”, explains Professor Bruno Lina, an infectious disease specialist who is also a member of Covars.
"It has mutations that could allow it to partially escape pre-existing immune defenses
."
Now, scientists are waiting to see if the accelerated circulation of BQ.1.1 is accompanied by a resumption of the epidemic.
“
For the moment, we have no signal going in this direction
”, specifies Professor Lina.
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While waiting to see more clearly, the scientists of the Covars recommend in particular to the decision-makers to emphasize the vaccination campaign for the third reminder this fall.
“It is aimed in particular at people aged 60 and over, at those with risk factors and at the entourage of these people
”, recalled Professor Brigitte Autran, president of Covars.
It is therefore potentially 18 million people who are affected, unless they were infected with the virus less than three months ago.
Note that the vaccines now available are a little different from the previous ones.
They are bivalent, ie they confer protection both against the initial viral strain and against the Omicron BA.1 (Moderna and Pfizer) or BA.5 (Pfizer) variant.
Covid, bronchiolitis and flu: a dreaded trifecta
If the experts expect a moderate impact of the Covid on the hospital system in the coming months, they fear the consequences of the diseases which will be added to it.
The disease "
is part of the burden of winter illnesses and will be added to the flu and other respiratory infections, which is why it is extremely important
[to get vaccinated]
in anticipation of winter
", insisted the Pr Other.
Each winter, the flu causes an average of 19,000 hospitalizations and bronchiolitis around 45,000, especially infants under one year old.
“
The impact of these epidemics on the hospital system is reinforced by the current fragility of the hospital
“, underlines the Covars in its opinion.
A fragility which is illustrated in particular by the figures for hospital absenteeism last winter: between 11 and 16%.
“We believe that today, we no longer talk about the mask and that is a concern.
It is necessary to resume messages encouraging the wearing of masks in closed places and public places.
»
Annabel Desgrées du Loû, demographer, member of Covars.
The Covars also recommends strengthening communication on the wearing of masks and continuing to promote screening, two points on which the authorities have been considerably relaxed in recent times.
“
We believe that today, we no longer talk about the mask and that is a concern.
It is necessary to resume messages encouraging the wearing of masks in closed places and public places,
”said Annabel Desgrées du Loû, demographer and one of the 19 members of Covars.
“
However, we do not think that it is necessary to return to the wearing of the compulsory mask.
We are no longer in the same situation as one or two years ago thanks to vaccination coverage.
»
