A new wave of Covid-19 is here.
“
This winter, we are going to catch Covid-19 like the dead
,
”
says Martin Blachier, epidemiologist and public health doctor.
Over one week, the number of daily cases, smoothed over one week, increased by 27% (55,995 new confirmed cases as of December 5 over a rolling week against 44,061 on average over seven days on November 28).
The moving average makes it possible to compensate for the days when fewer tests are carried out, and therefore when fewer positive cases are reported.
Last year, as of December 5, that seven-day average was 42,459 new cases.
Last year, the number of cases had increased sharply (366,619 new cases on January 25 on average smoothed over seven days)
.
“We are in a winter wave that we have experienced every year since the arrival of the Covid
”
,
observes Martin Blachier.
In particular, the return of the cold which favors meetings in closed places and therefore a further spread of the virus: “
Unlike the last waves, there is no summer to slow the progression of the virus
”.
Read alsoCovid-19, flu, bronchiolitis: can you be infected with the three diseases at the same time?
Added to this is the sub-variant of Omicron BQ.1.1, on the way to becoming dominant in France, more contagious than its “father” BA.5.
Similarly, BQ.1.1 promotes reinfections in a shorter time and further escapes the protection conferred by vaccines, including bivalents - these new vaccines, effective both against the original strain of Covid-19 and against the sub -variants of Omicron BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 which entered the vaccination campaign last September.
“
These vaccines work better on Omicron than the old vaccines
[for severe forms, editor’s note]
, even if the protection against infections remains very partial
, recalls infectious disease specialist Anne-Claude Crémieux.
There is therefore a double human and viral factor to explain this new wave of Covid-19
”.
Wearing a mask as a solution?
Faced with this situation, coupled with an unprecedented triple epidemic (Covid-19, influenza and bronchiolitis), the government is urging the population to wear masks again on public transport.
Sunday December 4, the Minister of Health François Braun even assured that his
“arm would not [tremble] if we [had to] decide on the obligation to wear a mask, including in all circumstances”
.
“
We should not expect too much from a return to wearing a mask in public transport
, nevertheless tempers Martin Blachier.
This would have a marginal effect on a collective level
”.
And to insist:
It is impossible to stop a wave of a virus that is transmitted orally without containment.
You would have to wear the mask everywhere and all the time to see a small collective impact
”.
Read alsoCovid-19: could wearing a mask become compulsory again?
Would a return of the mask therefore be too late to break the epidemic dynamic?
“
The mask still slows the transmission of the virus
, nuance Anne-Claude Crémieux.
It protects the person wearing it, but also the person facing it.
The risk of being infected is reduced by two thirds when you wear it.
80% if it is an FFP2”
.
Not negligible from an individual point of view, therefore.
"
If the obligation to wear a mask in closed places was taken now, there could be an effect on hospitalizations within about a week
,
"
she adds.
Curb hospitalizations
The situation at the hospital remains the government's main barometer.
"
This is what has always dictated the measures to protect the population and who will dictate it again
,
"
says Anne-Claude Crémieux.
In particular because a young and healthy person has very little chance of going to hospital because of Covid-19.
As of December 5, 2022, the hospital strain of Covid-19 on intensive care capacity is 22%, compared to the initial capacity of hospitals, that is to say before the increase in intensive care bed capacity.
A figure certainly up by one point over a week, but which remains “
very tolerable for the healthcare system
”
,
according to Anne-Claude Crémieux.
On December 5, 2021, this rate was 41%.
"
It's very complex to predict how high hospitalizations will go
,
"
explains Anne-Claude Crémieux.
“
The levels linked to Covid are now very acceptable
”, confirms for his part the epidemiologist Martin Blachier.
As of December 5, 2022, 1114 people were in intensive care or intensive care because of Covid-19 - 2066 a year ago.
"
We have estimates which indicate that the peak
[of the ninth wave, editor's note]
could reach around 2,000 patients in intensive care at the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023
"
,
warns Martin Blachier all the same.
For him, an increase in cases and hospitalizations at Christmas and New Year is “
inevitable
”
.
“
There is only one solution: it is to get vaccinated
”
.
And the vaccine?
Sunday, December 4 on BFMTV, François Braun was worried about the too low number of people at risk up to date with their vaccination reminder: "
A little more than 10%
" only.
Older people are the most up-to-date: 40% of 60-80 year olds and 20% of over 80 year olds.
An increase in proportion compared to mid-November, but insufficient to protect this segment of the population as a whole, which is among the most vulnerable.
"
If we doubled the vaccination rate with a new booster dose, we would have a significant impact
," says Martin Blachier.
Read also Bronchiolitis, flu, Covid-19: can French hospitals cope with a triple epidemic?
"
It takes 15 days overall for the vaccine to reach its maximum efficiency after the injection
,
"
he adds.
According to him, it would therefore be necessary to be vaccinated before December 10 to be fully protected against serious forms for Christmas.
Anne-Claude Crémieux recalls, however, that “
the vaccine does not protect against infection
”
.
She adds: “
Vaccination coupled with wearing a mask in enclosed places nevertheless remains a good way to protect yourself against being sick
”.
