Eurovision 2023: Noa Kirel is officially announced as Israel's representative (Walla system!)
"Noa Kirel is already in fifth place!", cried the headlines last week.
"Israel crashes to ninth place", they cried as if we had finished in last place in the semi-finals.
"Noa Kirel jumps to seventh place!", we returned to rejoice in this emotional roller coaster.
And all this happened before Noa Kirel threw us some small bone, the "Unicorn" sample, and about a third of the songs that will compete in Eurovision 2023 have not yet been chosen or published.
So how do the betting agencies determine the chances of winning the Eurovision Song Contest?
According to what do they divide the percentages before songs are even published?
The betting agencies analyze various factors that can affect the Eurovision results.
The first factor is historical trends.
Bookmakers look at previous Eurovision competitions and look at countries that have a history of good performance.
For example, countries like Sweden or Ukraine, even when there is no war on their soil, consistently do well in the competition, so it always seems that their chances of being at the top of the table are higher than other countries.
Legend has it that no matter what Sweden sends, the judges will save it from doom.
In this context, the agencies also take into account factors such as voting blocs in which certain countries tend to vote for each other (yes, the Nordic countries, we are looking at you. No, you have no right to criticize Greece-Cyprus!).
By examining historical data, bookmakers can make a preliminary assessment of each country's chances of success.
Another factor is fan polls.
Not every fan poll from a small website in Iceland or Slovenia influences the bookies, but they do follow fan polls and big Eurovision forums that are considered influential in the Eurovision world to get a sense of which songs and artists are generating the biggest buzz.
Bookmakers can also plant their own polls to better understand which artists are popular with audiences.
Fan polls really don't always predict Eurovision success, but they provide useful information for bookmakers to determine odds.
The various Eurovision previews before the competition also influence the agencies.
A country can be ranked low, but rise in ranking when the pre-songs are revealed, even before the song itself is chosen, based on the agency's assessment that it is the song that will be chosen.
This is exactly what is happening to us these days with Sweden - Lorin, who won Eurovision 2012 with the song that became a hit "Euphoria", competes in the fourth round of Melodifestivalen, the Swedish prequel.
From the moment a sample of the song came out, Sweden jumped in the bets and overtook Ukraine for the first time in the 2023 Eurovision season. The agencies estimate based on the buzz that Lorin will win the Swedish preliminary and according to Sweden's winning chances have been updated.
After Lorin qualified for the finals of the Melodifestivalen, Sweden widens the gap in the chances of winning from the other countries.
If Laurin is surprised and doesn't win, we may see a drop in Sweden's stakes.
We are now in the first fluctuation period in the agencies, the period when new songs are published week after week.
When Noa Kirel's song is published on March 8, we can see Israel's ascent to the top, but a great decline is also possible.
In the meantime, even after the unfounded rumors that the song is running in WhatsApp and Telegram groups, and after the tiny sample we got in the corporation's teaser and Noa's Tiktok, Kirel keeps Israel in a high place in the betting - seventh as of this writing.
After the publication of all the songs that will compete in Eurovision in mid-March, we expect a period of relaxation without significant changes in the ratings, until rehearsals begin, which are expected to open on April 30.
Based on what they see in the replays, the betting agencies update the odds ratings for winning the competition.
At this stage, when they understand what the stage looks like and what the vocal abilities are, if any, of each live artist, the agencies know how to update the ranking based on understanding the strengths and weaknesses of each competitor.
As the cliché says that every amateur knows how to recite in his sleep: "Everything depends on the live performance".
In addition to all of these, the betting agencies also read articles and news from Eurovision experts and professional commentators to gain insights into the competition.
These experts can provide valuable information about the artists and songs.
This may not have a particularly large impact, but it can provide important insights to the agencies that determine the chances of winning.
On the basis of all these and other factors, the betting agencies begin to create odds tables for winning the Eurovision at the very beginning of the competition season, before even one note comes out of one song.
Granted, it doesn't sound very believable, but these agencies have many years of experience and plenty of data to rely on.
Ultimately, the odds reflect the bookmakers' assessment of each country's chances of success, and none of them will be particularly happy to part with too much money for the bettors.
You will also be interested in:
"Unicorn" by Noa Kirel: listen to an excerpt from Israel's Eurovision Song
When Noa Kirel sings?
How do you vote?
All the questions and answers for Eurovision 2023
Noa Kirel's path to the final was shortened: only 37 countries will participate in Eurovision 2023
More in Walla!
The BBC reveals: the comedian Graham Norton and the star "Ted Lasso" among the hosts of Eurovision 2023
To the full article
It all depends on the live.
Noa Kirel in concert at Yarakon Park (Photo: Omri Silver)
So how is Israel suddenly ranked so high?
After all this, the question arises as to how in the last Eurovision season Israel was ranked low throughout, and this year we are ranked high from the beginning.
And yes, it doesn't matter if it's fifth or ninth place - for a country like Israel, it's a very flattering figure before the song's publication.
The answer to this lies first of all in the fact that the odds set by the betting agencies are not always based on objective data or information only.
They are also influenced by a variety of subjective factors, such as public opinion, so it is not very unusual to see changes in odds from year to year, or even within the same year.
In the case of Israel's chances of winning Eurovision 2023, the agencies are basing themselves on early indicators.
For example, among the creators of the song is one, Doron Medley.
Medley has rich experience in writing for Eurovision, true, he also has failures in Arsenal, but they were in the era of the Broadcasting Authority.
Medley then led Israel to the finals with "Golden Boy" after four Eurovisions in which we were kicked in the semi-finals, he managed to convince the judges that the song "Made of Stars" meets the quality category, and he also has a win on his rich Eurovision record.
The artist chosen to represent us, Noa Kirel, also has a strong record, she arouses a significant buzz, so the bookies give Israel higher chances.
And let's not ignore historical trends in Eurovision either.
We Israelis like to whip ourselves, and it seems as if no matter who is chosen to represent us, we will always be whipped first.
But history shows that we are actually among the most successful countries in the competition.
We already have four wins, we reached the top 10 in the new era as well, and most of our participations reach the finals of the competition.
If the country has a record of good performance or winning in the past, the betting agencies give higher odds, and so it is in the case of Israel.
More in Walla!
Eurovision senior to Netanyahu: "Israel will only be able to host if the corporation functions fully"
To the full article
So it's true, this is a difficult year.
And yes, if Lorin is chosen to represent Sweden, it could very well be that we know already in March that we have a Eurovision winner and that we will return to Sweden next year.
But we must remember that the bookies' odds are not always accurate, certainly not before rehearsals, and there is always the possibility of unexpected results in Eurovision.
Let's recall that during the closing of the possibility to bet on Eurovision 2018, before the beginning of the reading of the score, Cyprus overtook Israel in the chances of winning.
Who won in the end and where the Eurovision was held the following year we all remember, and it wasn't Nicosia.
Ultimately, the odds reflect the betting agencies' assessment of each country's chances of success, but they are not a crystal ball.
We are of course waiting with bated breath for March 8, to finally hear Noa Kirel's song.
We already know that, just like any other song, the reactions will range from "Who is Lauryn? Noa wins with Doz Poa from all the countries in the universe, it's the most phenomenal!", and "This is what we've been waiting for? What is this boredom".
It's the way of the world, that's how the Eurovision bubble works.
We, no matter what, will cheer for Noa Kirel all the way to the finals, and wish her to breathe the air of the highest peaks possible in the competition.
culture
Tags
Eurovision 2023
Noa Kirel
