The inversion of the pyramid: first buses, then micromobility, then pedestrians and finally the private car (photo: Lavi aerial photographs)
It has been a little over 100 years that the private car has been an integral part of existence in the Western world, and since then it has also taken over the East.
And if we separate for a moment the emotional-romantic aspect of the story - in the end and in the broader course of things, in these 100 years the car has turned from a liberating tool, a means of wider social, business and cultural opportunities than ever before - into a binding tool, one that has managed to enslave us to an existence that revolves around around the need to move around in it.
It determines our place of residence, the distance from our work, where the children will study, when and with whom they will meet, where we will go to hang out or shop, where we will travel.
Fans of conspiracies are also invited to have fun with the idea that this whole arrangement is a conspiracy of the car industry and McDonald's and the service of ordering the meal directly to the car window.
But is it possible that we can see another existence, an alternative to the private car?
We asked transportation and planning experts from Ayalon Routes, the planning director and the Tel Aviv Jaffa Municipality to draw for us our transportation future in Israel.
In order to understand the process, we broke it down into three parts - a view to 2030 which is just around the corner in planning terms.
A look at 2040, which is already from the Air Force plane, and then a look at 2050, which is already from a satellite view in general.
Closing urban complexes to car traffic (here the Opera Square) (Photo: Yonatan Honig)
Welcome to Kibbutz Givat Emek (pseudonym, no need to troll Wise), like the vast majority of kibbutzim, he solved the problems that the rest of the world is now starting to face decades ago.
There are no roads in it, so there is no need for crosswalks and traffic lights, the cars themselves only move in its outer shell, where they are also parked and movement in the common areas can be done on foot, by bicycle or by light vehicles.
In homes where the need for a second car is occasional, they use the "vehicle arrangement" where you can register to use one of the cars shared by everyone.
Those who do not want to drive and just want to get to the nearby train station or the city, a council circle and more can inform the "home driver" of their transportation needs and it will be included in the daily travel arrangement.
In between, the members send suggestions and requests for trips in the "Tramp-Emek" WhatsApp group.
Some of these characteristics are known today by transport planners as "walkability", "shared vehicle", "flexible public transport".
Can this model work on the larger scale of a city, or mega-metropolis?
Most likely not.
Can it characterize certain neighborhoods or constitute a general vision for the existence of a life in which the car is a tool that works for us and does not run our lives?
Definitely.
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Dr. Rivka Shlislberg from Netiv Ayalon (Photo: Geva Talmor | Spokesperson for Netiv Ayalon)
2030: All board
In a country where it is not clear whether the Knesset will complete its 4-year term and whether the roof sealing will last even in the winter, it is difficult to look too far ahead.
But some people that is exactly their job.
Dr. Rivka Schlislberg, Vice President of the Master Plan and Uzi Levin, Vice President of Entrepreneurial Projects at Ayalon Routes are two of them. And when we talk about 2030 in the field of transportation, they point out what will return and rise as well in conversations with Ofir Cohen, Director of the Transportation Authority in the Tel Aviv Municipality - Jaffa and Shahar Soler, Vice President of Strategy in the Department of Planning at the Ministry of the Interior.
"We see 2030 in transportation already starting to happen," says Dr. Schlisslberg, "more public transportation routes, more infrastructure conditions for efficient and fast movement of buses and more streets that are more pleasant to walk on." Until 2030
?
"Full operation of all the light rail lines, and where it would be less effective also a light rail-like solution in the form of a train on wheels, those 24-meter-long buses that move along central routes. For those who do not travel within the city but come to it from the outside, the fast lanes will be established until then," he explains Uzi Levin
Reminder: this is a service that is very similar to the one that is already active on Route 1, only with huge multiples of capacity and traffic volume.
5 mega-parking lots with 26,000 parking spaces in Sheim and Rishon Lezion, from which drivers will be able to transfer to very fast shuttles (average speed of 70 km/h), free, every 5 minutes to 5 central employment centers. The really big numbers - 3,200 trips per day and 32 million passengers a year.
"This is a project that will completely change the behavior of those coming from outside and expand the employment options for those on the outskirts of the metropolis" explains Uzi Levin.
And when he says "metropolis" it is important to understand what he is talking about - what you know today as several cities clustered between Netanya and Ashdod - you will probably have to forget in favor of their transformation into one huge and bustling block of more than 5 million inhabitants.
Uzi Levin, Ayalon Routes (Photo: Geva Talmor | Ayalon Routes barges)
The Tel Aviv Municipality's Transportation Authority is already aiming for this scenario, "We see 2030 in three levels," explains Ofir Cohen, "The first is improved public transportation and a wider range - light rail, more buses, more public transportation routes, including on Saturdays, a pleasant station environment More, an upgrade of the transition spaces between the various means of transportation. The second layer is the light and tiny transportation - with a goal of 300,000 trips by bicycles and scooters, compared to 180,000 today. This will happen when they have a safe infrastructure that is separated from pedestrians and vehicles."
Is it necessarily in the model of scooter rental companies?
"Not sure", he explains and qualifies that it mainly depends on the financial strength of the companies themselves and also that the municipality itself has no intention of being an operator like at the time of the "Tel-Ofan" project.
And the third layer?
"The pedestrians.
In the municipality's vision, these are distinctly pedestrian-oriented streets with wide sidewalks and central axes or complexes in the center of the city that will be closed to vehicular traffic in general.
The fourth layer is the cars, which are pushed (not only in his case) to the end - "We are not against cars and do not aspire to be car-free, but it is a component that consumes resources and drives too little in return for them."
The forecast: management of the parking system in a tighter way - that is, less parking, at higher rates, with fewer parking tickets and the tightening of hands in the release of disabled tickets for free parking.
A rush to switch to electric propulsion with the ambition that it will be fully electric by the year 2030 and encouraging cooperative transportation.
Visualization of the center of the Shalom train station after the upgrade (photo: Natevi Ayalon)
Shahar Soler from the planning director also places these things on the forecast for 2030.
"Increasing the public transportation service, encouraging "soft movements" - the general and professional name for personal means of transportation such as scooters and bicycles - and a transition of the cities to those that encourage walking." But Soler also explains and cools the
enthusiasm for major changes by the end of the decade. Beyond the painting of a public transportation route - what we will see in 2030 is all the things that are now already being done, not those that are only in planning, and will be ready perhaps in 2040. And he, like everyone else, is very cautious in his anticipation of 2050. And if anyone is wondering where the metro is in the whole story The one of until 2030? Patience, we are still in the wrong decade.
But the thing that everyone agreed on is the obligation to understand that at the base of this whole mechanism there must be connectivity between all these measures.
Which will ensure the accessibility of alternative transportation from the door of the house in Netanya to the office in Ramat Hay'il and vice versa.
By the way, this is true not only for Gush Dan, which is presented here as a case study, but is relevant to any encouragement to get rid of the private car, whether it is in Haifa, Be'er Sheva or Hadera, explains Shahar.
Shahar Soler from the planning director (photo: Public Relations)
2040: Don't wait for the metro
If everything works well, the biggest news regarding our dependence on a private car will be the full operation of all metro lines M2, M1 and M3 or who prefers the colors: blue, orange and yellow respectively.
But I see that I only wrote the word "if" here once, and that does not sufficiently clarify the reservations of all the parties that we will indeed see here the transportation miracle that the world has known for 100 years working fully on the specified dates.
According to the latest postponements, these are for initial and partial activation in 2034 and full activation of the first line in 2037.
Therefore, the news in the broader aspect does not necessarily come from the metro according to all the sources we spoke with.
Cohen from the Municipality of Tel Aviv-Jaffa of course refers to the metro, but not as a figure or a fact that will necessarily end, but as a bonus for the processes that will begin in the current decade - including: the expansion of the possibility of entering the city with the fourth rail, the continued improvement of the public transportation network, and more.
Here he also qualifies the hype surrounding the air and sea medium "we do not believe in their feasibility even at that stage".
But he does bring into the picture what until recently was the holy grail of the automobile industry - the autonomous car - "Its entry in this decade will be, but in terms of the impact on our conduct in the space it will not affect the distribution of traffic between private vehicles, public transport, light vehicles and walking".
Ofir Cohen, Tel Aviv Municipality Transportation Authority (Photo: Guy Yehiali)
Relying on light rail as a solution with a cost-time-build-efficiency ratio is also the concept of Shahar Soler and the planning division, "We will see many more light rail, not only in the center but also in Haifa, Beer Sheva and more. More generally, if the conditions are ripe, we We will see a significant reduction in per capita and general travel - not because there will be fewer cars, but because there will be many more people and there will be many more tools that will reduce the need to travel by car, whether it is alternative transportation or more draconian tools such as reducing parking and 'educating' the public about the toll model the congestion".
Even in Ayalon routes, there is unanimous opinion when it comes to RKL. Or in the words of Dr. Schlisslberg: "We will see an expansion of this means of transportation to places like Hadera and Netanya, an upgrade of the matron in Haifa to a similar model. In the end, we will always be in the race to produce infrastructure Transportation that matches the rate of population growth."
As part of these solutions, Schlisslberg also sees the use of autonomous tools - "Currently, there are two major barriers in public transportation - the highest cost is the driver and this resource is also in great short supply (about 6,000 drivers according to estimates - KK) and there is also difficulty in justifying financially Certain lines. Small and new tools that will operate autonomously on these lines will be able to solve both of these problems.
According to Uzi Levin, beyond the entry of autonomous vehicles "initially in a designated lane and then also in a mixed lane", there will also be the expansion of the means of transportation that will be used for mass transportation.
Not only more types of vehicles (from "train on wheels" to personal transportation vehicles), and this in turn will also bring about a pyramid reversal in terms of infrastructure, a transition from a wide lane for the private vehicle, to a narrow and dedicated lane for diversified public transportation.
His vision also includes a return of the cooperative vehicle model that has not taken off so far, but the experts are not giving up on the format.
When the goal is to increase the filling factor in the car from 1.2 people per car to 1.5, it sounds a little, on the road it is a significant change.
The light rail cars are ready, but the delays continue to cause them to raise dust (Photo: Reuven Castro)
2050: very different and very similar
If the vision of 2030 is quite simple and similar to what we know today and 2040 will be a little more simple than that, regarding 2050 the business is already starting to become very general.
Very general, and no less interesting.
In the planning director, Shahar points out some of the more fascinating directions - he talks about huge cities, very dense and much better planned, ones that will reduce the need for what we know today as "daytimes" - the daily commute as a matter of routine because in these cities much better accessibility will be offered not only for transportation , but also for the life that is possible in our very close environment.
As part of this vision, these are complexes that can be very reminiscent of a kibbutz in its construction concept, only with towers and without the smells from the barn, which will create open spaces and without vehicles that will be in a separate location from the residential buildings.
"We have already seen such a model in Austria and we are looking at its implementation here as well. Even at a stage when we cannot achieve complete independence from the private car, we can switch to using a 'parking structure', a kind of large communal parking lot where the cars will be stored when they are not in use and the rest of the space will be made available for walking and will not be wasted on parking lots".
According to him, the advantage of such a parking structure is in its basic skeletal configuration and the ability to change its purpose from a parking lot in the first stage to a shopping center, a community center, a hospital and more later.
Simulation of an underground station of the metro (photo: official website, NTA)
"The fantasy is to disconnect from the land, which will allow the release of 40% of the urban cover today (such as roads and parking lots - K.C.) and to reduce it and on the floor to offer large, shaded walking spaces where we can offer a mix of uses that will serve as many people as possible, from leisure and commerce to micro mobility and more" .
In Dr. Schlislberg's vision of the Ayalon routes, the cars are still seen on the road, but in a very different manner in 2050. "A lot of use of autonomous and electric tools that will challenge us not in the driving aspect, but in that of infrastructure and charging with the need to educate for distributed use of electricity through variable rates and more".
Uzi Levin points to three trends that will characterize transportation in 2050 - the first is, of course, the complete transition to an electric or manual vehicle, the second is a complete separation from the ownership structure we know of a car - it will no longer be ours, but we will use it for an hourly fee, between If it is an autonomous or self-driving vehicle.
And the third tier: we will understand that we have exhausted the ground level and we will begin to see the solutions in the aerial medium of drones to transport goods in the first stage and people later on.
For Ofir in the Tel Aviv Municipality, life is going to be much simpler, "If we set aside the fact that the future is difficult to predict, we are not expected to see a traffic explosion that will completely change the way we move. But we do say that as a planning reality, the trend we are starting today - of spaces Free of vehicles and shaded, it will be the starting point for city planning even in the next 100 years."
This traffic jam will remain with us for many, many years (Photo: Keinan Cohen)
So will we really get rid of the cars and what will happen to the traffic jams?
The only thing that will almost certainly be with us in 2050 is traffic jams, which are not going anywhere.
"Of course, as an ideal, in a world of cooperative and public transportation, we would get rid of the car as a private vehicle," says Rivka of Ayalon routes, "it already has buds in the form of young guys, mainly in central Tel Aviv, who simply give up the car - because they have an alternative."
Uzi Levin also holds this view.
According to him, "the more we move to mass transit transportation as an alternative to the private car, its attractiveness will decrease."
The emphasis is on spinach, not disappear.
Shahar Soler also talks about a model of joint or commercial ownership of a car that will replace private ownership, but does not see it completely disappearing from the landscape.
Here Ofir Cohen also aligns himself and agrees that we don't see a future without a car at all, but "less cars" as he says - yes.
Autonomous cars are definitely on the way (Photo: Nir Ben Tovim, manufacturer)
And so traffic congestion is here to stay.
"At the planning director," Soler explains to us, "we are responsible for the physical space, traffic jams and the cars that create them are at the administrative level. Moving to 50% remote work by 50% of the employees will change the transportation situation much more than any other planning or solution."
As far as Ofir Cohen at the Tel Aviv-Jaffa Municipality is concerned, which is cited again, as an example and an example - the answer is also clear - "Traffic jams are not a municipal issue, but a national issue. The residents of Tel Aviv themselves do not create the traffic jams, but everyone who comes from outside. So the absence of traffic jams depends on the decisions State. If municipalities around Tel Aviv-Jaffa, which are currently about 10 years behind in these areas, take our toolbox with adjustments, their situation will improve significantly."
But some symbols that are precisely in the Ayalon lanes, the symbol of the traffic jams in Gush Dan are not optimistic.
Uzi Levin explains: "The side effect of big cities and big economies are traffic jams."
His explanation is simple: we will always be in traffic also because of the "transportation failure wheel";
When the situation will be unbearably worse and people will switch to more convenient and faster public transportation, the roads will clear and the traffic will flow, as soon as this happens they will return to the private car alternative and God forbid.
" Unfortunately, the answer is most likely yes, even then it will happen. But of one thing we can be sure, even if only 70% of the alternative transportation vision comes true, we will be in a much better situation. Either that or you move to Kibbutz Givat Emek.
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