Municipal in Paris: why polls should be read with caution

The right is reassured in front of the “Dati dynamic”, the left remains confident, the “walkers” hope to go up the slope. In Paris, the municipal election campaign is no exception: candidates closely observe the polls. But with more caution than in most big cities. All are aware of the particularity of voting in the capital, but also in Lyon and Marseille.

One vote per sector

In these three metropolises, most of the published surveys are carried out on a city scale, the easiest and least costly solution for their sponsors. However, the ballot is held by sector - the district in Paris and Lyon; two arrondissements in Marseille.

Also read: Municipal 2020: who are the candidates for mayor of Paris?

It is on this scale that voters vote: they choose their elected representatives at the Town Hall, who then elect the mayor. Translation in the voting booth, in Paris: the "Anne Hidalgo" bulletin will not be available throughout the city, but only in the 12th arrondissement, where the outgoing mayor is present. If she is elected at the sector level, she will then run for the votes of the councilors of Paris, to be elected at the head of the Town Hall.

Alliances before the second round

Even presented at the city level, the voting intentions remain instructive. They allow to appreciate the dynamics of the candidates. On condition that the second round is also observed, in view of which alliances can be formed.

In 2014, the candidate of the right, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, came first in the first round across the capital, with 35.6% of the vote. But the rally of the socialist and ecological leftists, in the second round, had enabled Anne Hidalgo to win, with 53.3% of the votes cast.

The possibility of losing with more votes

Last reason to read the polls with caution: in Paris, Lyon and Marseille, it is possible to win the town hall ... with fewer votes than its opponents. For a candidate, the key to victory in fact lies in conquering the sectors, a means of winning elected officials to be elected to the central town hall. No need to score big in the sectors. Obtaining 50.01% of the vote is enough to capture a large majority of its "big voters".

Read also: Why a minority candidate in voice can win in Paris, Lyon and Marseille

The most populated boroughs are therefore targeted as a priority, therefore the most providers of seats. This is the reason for the success of Bertrand Delanoë in Paris, in 2001: minority in voice facing the right, he won more important districts ... therefore more elected officials. This vote of the "big voters", called "third round", escapes the logic of opinion polls.