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The United States is changing, and Israel needs to recalculate its relations with the Democrats

In the last decade, there has been a rift in relations between Israel and the party, which resulted from two parallel processes - Netanyahu's support for Republicans and a leftist tendency of the Democrats.

The proportion of whites in the population is small, and the leadership in Israel will be required to mend the rifts and make connections with minority-leaning minority communities.

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• United States

• The Democratic Party

• Joe Biden

Prof. Eitan Gilboa

Friday, 09 October 2020, 22:00

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In the last 20 years there have been significant changes in the demographic composition of the American population and consequently in the profile of eligible voters.

These can be reflected in the upcoming presidential and congressional elections and certainly in the elections to be held in the next decade and beyond.

The changes provide significant benefits to the Democratic Party and require systemic robbery in the current tense relations between Israel and the party.

Whites are losing a significant percentage of their population, while ethnic groups, led by Hispanics and Americans in Central and South America, are rapidly increasing their numbers.

In two to three decades, whites will lose the majority they have today.

There are states in the United States like California, the most populous state with about 40 million inhabitants, where whites are already a minority.

They make up only about 38% of the population, while the proportion of Hispanics is also about 38% while that of Asians is about 15% and blacks about 6%.

Turn to minorities with her election as deputy.

Biden and Harris (Photo: Reuters)

Changes in demographic composition affect elections and voting patterns.

The number of eligible voters in the United States increased from 193 million in 2000 to about 240 million this year - an increase of 47 million voters. The number of white voters increased from 2000 by 24%, but most of the increase, 76%, was recorded among non-whites . within this group, the largest increase, 40%, was among Hispanics. the number of black voters increased by 17%, a 14% Asian and other non-whites by 6%.

the growth that has caused the rate of whites Among all voters, the proportion of ethnic-Hispanic, black and Asian minorities has risen significantly, with

a 9% decrease in the proportion of white voters compared to a doubling of the proportion of Hispanic and Asian voters. 67% versus 30%, which is a significant change within a 20-year period.

These numbers do not appear to be all because the exercise of the right to vote differs from group to group.

The right to participate in elections is conditional on a cumbersome process of early registration.

The various countries decide on the rules of registration and there are those, especially the conservatives, who even today make it difficult to register minorities.

Often, minorities felt that no matter who won, their situation would not change anyway.

Due to these reasons, they have little to exercise their right to choose.

In contrast, the participation rate of bricks was much higher.

In the last presidential election in 2016, the overall turnout was 55%, and that of minorities below 50%.

Thus, for example, the turnout of Hispanics was only 47.6%.

The corona crisis has caused two effects this year.

First, there is a significant increase in voting in envelopes sent by mail.

Second, voter turnout among minorities is expected to rise due to the harsh political polarization in American society, the wild election campaign, and the interracial demonstrations and riots that erupted after the shocking assassination of George Floyd by a white policeman in Minneapolis.

Party preferences

The polls found significant differences in the political preferences and affiliation of ethnic groups to parties in the United States.

Only among whites is there a significant preference for the Republican Party, while the vast majority of ethnic groups have identified as Democrats or tend to vote for Democrats.

Only among Hispanics is the gap narrower because they have more diverse opinions determined by the countries of origin of their families.

Americans of Cuban descent, for example, support Republicans in a ratio of 57% compared to 37% who support Democrats.

This is because they or their ancestors fled Fidel Castro's communist dictatorship, and Republicans have always advocated a strict policy against his regime, while Democrats preferred a more lukewarm attitude.

In contrast, most Americans of Mexican descent, 59%, support Democrats.

Since the number of Americans of Cuban descent is relatively small compared to the other Hispanics, the balance is still overwhelmingly in favor of the Democrats.

In the 2016 presidential election, 66% of Hispanics voted for Hillary Clinton, and only 28% voted for Trump.

In the 2018 congressional election, a similar ratio was recorded: 69% of Hispanics voted for Democratic House candidates and only 29% voted for Republican candidates.

Electoral power in action

Hispanics are beginning to exercise their electoral power in the governing bodies of the United States.

They currently have 40 deputies in the House of Representatives out of 435, 38 Democrats and two Republicans.

In the Senate they have four representatives, two Democrats and two Republicans, of Cuban descent.

In various administrations, mostly Democrats, Hispanics have served as ministers and senior officials.

In 2009, President Barack Obama appointed the first judge of Hispanic descent to the Supreme Court, Sonia Sotomior.

Further evidence of the rise of minorities and their affiliation with the Democratic Party can be found in a group called the Squad, which is made up of four House members, Democrats and young women, who were elected in the 2018 congressional election.

They represent three minorities: Hispanic Alexandria Oxio-Cortez, black Aina Presley, and Muslim Ilhan Omar, who is from Somalia, and Rashida Talib, who is Palestinian.

They belong to the radical wing of the Democrats and are gaining increasing status and influence.

Represent the next generation in the party.

Members of the "group" (Photo: AP)

Joe Biden illustrated the electoral power of minorities by choosing Kamela Harris, a black of Asian descent, to run for vice president.

Kamla's mother is a Tamil immigrant from India and her father is an immigrant from Jamaica.

This is the first time a black woman has been nominated as a vice president.

Biden chose her mainly because he wanted to ensure that black voters who stayed home in the 2016 election and thus contributed to Clinton's loss would vote this time and secure his victory.

This appointment has another aspect.

Biden is 78 years old, and if elected, will be the oldest president ever to enter the White House.

When he finishes his first term he will be 82 years old and may very well not want to run for a second term.

In that case, it is possible that in 2024 Kamla Harris will be the Democratic candidate - the first black woman - for the presidency.

The attraction of minorities to Democrats

At the beginning of his term, Trump completely banned the immigration of Muslims, attacked the Hispanics and described them as criminals and rapists

Due to their status, minorities care first and foremost about their rights.

The Democratic Party upholds liberal principles and has led historic struggles for equal rights in the United States.

Democrats also support regulating the status of illegal immigrants, especially from Mexico and other countries in Central and South America.

Republicans, on the other hand, took a conservative stance, supporting immigration restrictions and deporting illegal immigrants.

At the beginning of his tenure, Trump completely banned the immigration of Muslims, attacked the Hispanics and described them as criminals and rapists.

In addition, he demanded that Mexico act more vigorously to prevent illegal immigration and, among other things, build a wall on its border.

He also pursued a strict policy against illegal immigrants, imprisoning them in pens and separating parents from their children.

Trump has accused Democrats of opposing the deportation of illegal immigrants, of restricting immigration and of building the wall because they want to bring in as many immigrants as possible so they can vote for them.

Because of all this, the vast majority of ethnic minorities support Democratic candidates.

Implications for US-Israel relations

Demographic change is likely to hurt US-Israel relations.

Surveys and studies show that whites support Israel at a much higher rate than minorities, and Republicans support Israel much more than Democrats.

In the last decade, there has been a rift in relations between Israel and the Democrats.

It stemmed from two parallel processes: Netanyahu's support for Republicans and the Democrats' leftist leanings.

Netanyahu confronted President Obama, intervened in the presidential election in an unprecedented way when he publicly supported Mitt Romney, who was the Republican candidate against Obama in the 2012 election, and Trump who represented the Republicans in the 2016 election, he ignored the Democrats and in the Trump era developed particularly close ties.

Due to the worsening political polarization between Democrats and Republicans in American society, as Netanyahu tightened ties with Trump, Democrats moved away from him and Israel.

On the other hand, during the Obama era, Democrats have moved to the left, and in recent years a radical movement has sprung up there, whose members and supporters, like the House of Representatives members of the "gang," are hostile to Israel and some are even anti-Semitic.

For decades, Israel has enjoyed similar support from the two main parties in the United States, a phenomenon known as "bipartisanship."

This is a vital support for Israel's security and well - being and it affects both the White House and Congress.

In recent years, this support has been lost.

In light of the demographic developments that strengthen the Democratic Party and the rift that exists between Israel and this party, the heads of state will have to mobilize support among ethnic groups, especially among Hispanics, and mend the rift with the Democrats.

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