Throughout 2023, Israel carried out 40 attacks in Syria: 297 targets in 95 different sites.
This is a 42% increase from last year, and 15 attacks were carried out between the beginning of the war and the end of the civil year.
The main targets were in Damascus and Aleppo, and their aim was to hit Iranian militia sites, weapons supply routes, weapons production centers and senior figures in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards - according to foreign publications.
IDF attacks in Syria and Lebanon (archive) // IDF spokesperson
For example, it was reported that on December 25 Israel killed Razi Mousavi, a senior commander in the Quds Force, and last Saturday five Iranian military advisers, including the head of Iranian intelligence in Syria, were killed in the bombing of a residential building in Damascus.
The President of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, promised after the assassinations that Iran would respond, Nasrallah also threatened after the assassination of Mousavi, only Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is silent.
Why?
Syria entered the 13th year of the civil war.
Assad won it, but it is a fragile victory.
More than 7 million Syrians are displaced, about 6.8 million Syrian refugees are scattered throughout the Middle East and about 90% of the Syrian population is below the poverty line.
On top of that, the earthquake that struck Syria in February of last year left - apart from the thousands of victims - also enormous destruction in the north of the country.
It is precisely for these reasons that Assad knows that he must focus on domestic affairs, rebuild his country and not look for adventures.
Because, from time to time, protests break out in southern Syria due to the economic situation, and from the regime's bitter experience, the small protests can spread to areas stricken with disaster and distress - what's more, Syria is still plagued by terrorism at the hands of ISIS and jihadist organizations.
Therefore, a security deterioration vis-à-vis Israel will only encourage the Syrian opposition and lead to an internal escalation.
Faced with a wave of attacks attributed to Israel and regional warming in the Middle East, the Syrian president knows that a rash step will harm the interests of his battered country. That's why he holds back and remains on the sidelines
Another reason is that Syria and Hamas are together in the resistance camp led by Iran, although there is not much love between Assad and them.
Hamas is a product of the Muslim Brotherhood, a movement with a difficult and violent history with the Aut regime led by Beit Assad.
In 2012, after a series of condemnations of the Syrian regime's repressive measures and support for the rebels, the Hamas leadership was expelled from Damascus, along with its headquarters and people.
The funding provided by the Syrians and Iranians stopped suddenly, while Khaled Mashal and his partners were forced to look for another refuge.
A decade later, when Hamas saw that Assad had survived and won, the organization sought to open a new page with Damascus.
In October 2022, relations were renewed, but Assad did not forget the betrayal.
So, apart from the deep resentment, the Syrian president has no desire to sacrifice his scarce assets and resources for the benefit of Hamas.
What about him and Gaza, when the exhausted Syrian army is fighting for the stability of its regime?
Assad will at most be willing to give freedom of action to the Iranian proxy organizations to operate from Syria.
All this in silence and without linking it directly to the terrorist activity.
In May 2023, Assad landed in Riyadh and participated in the Arab summit in Saudi Arabia.
Six months later, at the emergency summit, Assad condemned Israel for the "massacres against the Palestinians", and asked to stop any peace process and normalization with it.
He received hugs and applause.
And hence, after being accepted into the family of the Arab nations after years of loneliness, why should he spoil the atmosphere?
He finally succeeds, through words and great empathy, in strengthening his ties with the leading Sunni countries in the region at the expense of the relations they hoped to build with Israel, alongside turning Arab attention from Syria to Gaza, thereby making the Arabs forget the massacre he is perpetrating on his own people.
The war serves Damascus' goals against Israel even without being directly involved: Israel invests resources against Hamas and Hezbollah, and exhausts its strength in an endless war of attrition.
At the same time, it is gradually losing the credit to operate in the Strip, and is under international pressure to stop fighting.
When Assad knows that only a rash and extreme step on his part could harm his interests - why interfere with the work of others?
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