Arctic ice destined to disappear in 2035

The melting of Arctic sea ice runs faster than the most catastrophic forecasts: the Arctic could be ice-free in 2035. According to a new model, what is happening now is similar to what happened in the last interglacial period. Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey explain this in the journal Nature Climate Change. Previous projections by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave the persistence of sea ice in summer over an area of ​​one million square kilometers until at least 2050 or beyond 2100, but this latest analysis shows that even in the best possible scenario, Arctic sea ice will not reach this milestone, and may disappear before the middle of the century. According to Louise Sime, coordinator of the study, there are many factors to consider: "We can have a better understanding of the future by looking back on Earth's last warm period, which began 130,000 years ago, and much warmer than today." According to this new model, the Arctic was most likely ice-free in the summers of the last interglacial period, and this was increased by the presence of so-called melt ponds, i.e. pools of open water that form on sea ice. in the warmer months of spring and summer, which reduce surface reflectivity and absorb much more solar radiation than frozen ground. Studies have shown that these ponds increase surrounding ice melt and potential phytoplankton bloom in the ocean, making sea ice more unstable and causing fractures. If what happened in the past with these ponds happens in the future, according to the researchers, Arctic sea ice will disappear between 2035 and 2086. This study, the researchers point out, is not a direct measure of melted ice today, but a prediction based on what has happened in the past and what is now known about climate factors. (HANDLE).