By 2100, more than half of the world's births could take place in Africa. This figure was 29% in 2022.

The demographic study published in The Lancet also reveals that, by the end of the century, three quarters of births could taking place in a ‘poor country’ A decline faster than expected. This work, based on figures from the Global Burden of Disease and led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), estimates that the average fertility index could fall to 1.6 children per woman.