The French do not yet have the lead in the Europeans. In all camps and for all lists, the variations are marginal.

The Lepenists keeping some 10 points ahead of the Macronists. Jordan Bardella's list for Strasbourg (between 28% and 29%) would do less well than Marine Le Pen for the Élysée (36%). This gap calls into question a preconceived idea about the RN vote. The French would be expected to authorize a protest approach for a “no-cost” vote, but would be less inclined to entrust the keys to power to the double finalist.