Even before the escalation began, it is clear that nothing substantial will change vis-à-vis Gaza. Israel now needs strong nerves, civil discipline and a functioning political-propaganda system.
Islamic Jihad's incessant rioting, combined with the severe erosion of deterrence on all fronts, left it with no choice but to return to basics. The organization understands that the combination of high civilian discipline and the impressive interception rates of the Iron Dome greatly reduces their chances of exacting a price. But if the organization gains successes – and certainly if Hamas is forced to join a broad campaign – Israel may be dragged into an unwanted escalation.