Israel launched Operation Shield and Arrow almost with no other choice. Islamic Jihad's incessant rioting, which peaked last week with the rocket fire at midday in Sderot, combined with the severe erosion of deterrence on all fronts, left it with no choice but to return to basics.
The beginning of the operation was very successful. Islamic Jihad was surprised, both in timing and in intensity. The attack on its three senior operatives – at home, in their sleep – threw the organization off balance. It was also a reminder to other senior terrorists in other sectors that their homes are not their fortresses, and for whom nowhere is truly immune. Hassan Nasrallah, who in recent months has been walking like a peacock, can attest to this firsthand.
Such an operation requires precise synchronization between high-quality intelligence (human and technological) and surgical operational capability. Israel is the world champion in these two components, especially in turning them into a whole greater than the sum of its parts. The assassination in Gaza requires not only precise information about where each senior official sleeps at the level of the specific room in the house and who is next to him, but also to time the planes to take off and the airstrikes so that all three of them are hit simultaneously and cannot escape. The fact that the execution went smoothly is the result of this early intelligence-operational puzzle, much of which was devoted to the possibility of harming uninvolved civilians.
GPO
The approval for the assassination was given last Tuesday (immediately after the shooting in Sderot), but it was rejected each time for fear of harming a large number of civilians. Israel had an interest in avoiding this, not only from a humanitarian perspective, but because such an attack would inevitably drag Hamas into battle. The decision to attack yesterday was nevertheless made, in part, because it was clear that the assassinated officials had the constant potential to act again and ignite a broad escalation in which far more innocent people would be harmed on both sides.
Jihad will try to challenge Israel
Still, it can be assumed that Hamas' declaration that it would take part in the response stems from the fact that civilians were killed in the attack and from internal solidarity with Gaza. However, it is likely that they do not want to be dragged into a broad escalation that will inevitably lead to their crushing and crushing of Gaza, and therefore will seek to act symbolically – perhaps only by firing into the area surrounding Gaza.
Islamic Jihad, on the other hand, will seek to respond in a much harsher way. The working assumption is that it will try to challenge Israel in every possible way, including firing rockets at the center. The organization understands that the combination of high civilian discipline and the impressive interception rates of the Iron Dome (more than 90 percent in recent rounds of fighting) greatly reduces their chances of exacting a price, and therefore from yesterday they are looking for a "safer" response by means of anti-tank fire or sniping. That is why after the attack the IDF closed all the roads in the south that are visible from the Gaza Strip.
The house of one of those killed after the attack in Gaza, photo: Majdi Fathi/TPS
The extent to which Islamic Jihad succeeds in inflicting casualties on Israel will be of central importance during the escalation. If this fails – and when the Air Force is expected to attack Gaza intensively in order to exact additional costs from the organization – the residents of the Gaza Strip are expected to exert pressure on Hamas to restore quiet and allow a return to routine (including work in Israel). However, if the organization gains successes – and certainly if Hamas is forced to join a broad campaign – Israel may be dragged into an unwanted escalation, including the possibility of a multi-front connection in the north and in the mixed cities. The defense establishment assesses that the chances of this happening are small, but they are preparing under a strict working assumption, and are reinforcing the intelligence and operational systems in the north as well. The Israel Police is also required to make special preparations, which require not only threats and deployment of forces, but calming talks and mediation with the mayors of the cities and communities involved.
However, even before the escalation begins, it is clear that even at the end of the escalation, nothing substantial will change vis-à-vis Gaza. The politicians who boasted yesterday that they had led to a change in policy were born after Israel began eliminating its enemies, and are unable to count or recognize the number of terrorist leaders assassinated in Gaza in recent decades. For those who forgot: Only nine months ago, during Operation Dawn, Israel eliminated the Islamic Jihad leadership in the Gaza Strip, which shows not only that the organization's leadership in Gaza is probably one of the most short-lived positions there is, but also that the deterrence created by the assassinations is limited, certainly in the background Iran exhales and urges (with money and talk) to systematically challenge Israel. This manifests itself not only in rocket fire; Two of the senior operatives who were assassinated were also deeply involved in carrying out terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria by means of squads that operated, armed, and financed from the Gaza Strip.
Israel now needs strong nerves, civil discipline, and a political-propaganda system that will know how to build regional and international legitimacy for continued action, if necessary. Its leaders should also exclude statements and let actions do the talking. This is the time of the IDF and the Shin Bet, not of media-hungry politicians and likes who release statements that lack coverage into the air. Terrorism is not defeated with a blow but by points and over time, and it takes much more than a successful elimination to fundamentally change the reality in Gaza and Sderot.
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