Putin's ally senses a NATO conspiracy on his border. Lukashenko remains at Putin's side and accuses Poland and NATO of joint provocation plans.

The issues of the election in Belarus and the war in Ukraine are closely linked. The future of Belarus's future will likely be determined by events on the battlefields of Ukraine, given the persistent authoritarianism of the country's post-Polish post-soviet regime. The current President Lukaschenko warned not only an alleged American-PolISH provocation plan but also of an alleged possible “violent seizure of power” by the opposition in the parliamentary elections on February 25, 2024.