Abandoned health pass: how is Denmark, a "very interesting" country to follow?

"It will be very interesting to observe the evolution of the health situation in Denmark in the coming weeks".

It is the Scientific Council which says so in its last opinion of October 5.

The Nordic country of 6 million inhabitants is a life-size example of the impact that the abandonment of the health pass can have.

Since September 3, the "Coronapas" is no longer compulsory to access the vast majority of public places.

A week later, he was lifted in all remaining locations, including restaurants.

The reverse is true in France.

As a precaution, the scientific authorities recommend maintaining the sanitary pass in all or part of the places concerned for several more months.

Something sweet to the ears of the government, which intends to keep the possibility of it until… July 31, 2022.

"Not necessarily a direct link"

So, is the situation in Denmark likely to confirm the fears of the authorities in France? More than a month after the lifting of the sanitary pass, one might think so. Because the curve of daily cases in the Scandinavian country started to rise again from September 23. In three weeks, their number has more than doubled, from 330 to 700. The areas most affected are the large islands of Lolland and Zealand, in the south-east of the country. By relating the figures to the population, it is as if we had gone from 3,800 to more than 8,000 positive cases every day in France.

700 is less than the peaks of 1,000 cases per day reached in the spring and summer.

And it is light years from the 3,500 cases at the end of December, before the arrival of vaccines.

"The number of new cases is increasing, but it remains rather low," notes Pauline, 25, in Copenhagen for an International Volunteering (VIE) in the marketing sector for a year.

The fact remains that this development testifies to an increase in the circulation of the virus because the number of tests carried out each day is far from having increased in the same proportions (it went from 34,000 to 42,000 in three weeks).

“Maintaining the sanitary pass and wearing a mask can undoubtedly prolong the lull visible in Western Europe, and the Danes took full advantage of this until September.

But there is not necessarily a direct link between the lifting of these measures and this rebound that is observed in Denmark, because we are in a more general trend with the arrival of cold days ”, nuances epidemiologist Antoine Flahault , who studies the situation in different countries in real time with his team.

Third dose for all?

The number of Covid patients hospitalized in Denmark remains stable in any case, a little below 100. And only two deaths are recorded each day.

Not only is there always a delay between contaminations and the most critical forms, but it could also attest to the fact that the vaccines remain, even after 5 or 6 months after the last injection, very effective (at least 90% ) against severe forms, but less (50 to 60% depending on the study) against infection.

To read also Covid-19: the Danes, pioneers of the sanitary pass ... and first to find a "normal life"

However, we lack perspective and we do not know precisely from when the protection provided by vaccines against severe forms could drop, the Danish health authorities recently indicated. Better to anticipate rather than be taken aback, which happens - in particular - by the third doses. From this week, all people aged 65 and over and caregivers are encouraged to receive a new injection, aimed at “boosting” their immunity. Since the beginning of September, only nursing home residents and people particularly at risk have been invited.

Ultimately, all residents eligible for vaccination will certainly be affected, said the Minister of Health. And 84% of Danes are ready to be “stung” again, according to a survey carried out for the TV channel 2. “The inhabitants have an extremely high level of confidence in the health authorities, and this project to be vaccinated around 'a collective responsibility has been very well received,' said in September to Parisian Michael Bang Petersen, professor of political science at Aarhus University.

At the beginning of September, the Danish government also warned that it would impose further restrictions if the situation required it.

For the moment, nothing of the kind is planned but "anything can happen", recalled the Minister of Health.

“For citizens, the Covid is no longer a subject (rightly or wrongly) and life is running wild,” concludes Pauline.