The surprising options on the table for Venezuela

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Editor's Note: Dan Restrepo is a lawyer, Democratic strategist and political collaborator of CNN. He was presidential advisor and director for the Western Hemisphere of the National Security Council during the presidency of Barack Obama.

(CNN Spanish) - “All options are on the table”.

It is the emotional phrase that has defined the Trump administration's policy against Venezuela since its early days.

Initially it was an attempt to intimidate and divide the regime of Nicolás Maduro with the implicit threat of a US invasion.

Although an invasion - an effort that would require a gigantic investment of lives and money by a country fed up with wars - is not going to happen, the phrase fell, in particular, in the Venezuelan-American community, and rightly so.

Desperate to save their country and their relatives, the community was encouraged with the hope that the Trump administration would work for a profound change in Venezuela.

But in addition to playing with the emotions of a suffering people, the phrase has come to define the Trump administration's attempts to resolve the crisis in Venezuela in a way not anticipated.

• READ: John Bolton reiterates that "all options are on the table" in terms of Venezuela

It turns out that "all options" included changing the goal of promoting a profound change in Venezuela, to redefining "victory" to a superficial change at almost any price.

The first indications of this new definition of "all options" were seen on April 30.

That day of the failed uprising against Maduro, the goal became simply to get him out of Miraflores, as if his presence there was the only problem facing the Venezuelan people.

The alleged involvement of the White House on April 30 made it clear that “all options” would include leaving key architects of the criminal regime in power such as Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino and Maikel Moreno, president of a Supreme Court whose legitimacy allegedly They do not recognize.

"All options" also include lifting all US sanctions against Manuel Christopher Figuera, the general who had led SEBIN, one of the main tools of a repression system accused of crimes against humanity.

But it turns out that "all options" extend even further.

This weekend the news came out that "all options" seemed to include, as reported by the "Miami Herald", negotiate with one of the regime's strong men, an alleged drug trafficker who apparently ordered to assassinate an American senator (Senator Marco Rubio), Diosdado Cabello, president of another body whose legitimacy is not recognized, the Constituent Assembly. Cabello has denied such negotiation.

High levels of cynicism are required to understand how Cabello can figure among “all options” because if Trump's policy against Venezuela is what his defenders claim - the defense of democracy based on principles - there is no room for a president Hair.

If, in contrast, the policy against Venezuela is simply one more piece in an electoral strategy guided towards South Florida, a president Cabello can have his trumpist logic. But only if the Venezuelan-American people buy from Trump that passing the fate of Venezuela from Maduro's hands to Cabello's is a "victory."

• READ: Pompeo says that Maduro is a “tyrant” and reiterates that all options are on the table

But perhaps "all options" is not simply, nor primarily, a hoax directed at the Venezuelan-American community.

President Cabello could also appeal to another key electoral group in South Florida: the old Cuban-American guard. For that group, perhaps superficial change in Venezuela that implies the continuation of the deepest humanitarian crisis that has been experienced in South America is justified if it contributes to trigger the implosion in Cuba that they have sought for 60 years.

Cabello, in every appearance, has no ideological affinity with Cuba and perhaps would agree to cut oil flows to that country to stay with Venezuela.

If Venezuelans-Americans accept that they and their families have to continue suffering under a criminal regime with a new face to put pressure on Cuba, President Cabello might do well for Trump.

The days, weeks, and, sadly almost certain, the coming months will be full of noise from the Trump administration to Venezuela. This same week, for example, the president is thinking out loud about an alleged naval blockade of Venezuela that I don't think will happen either.

They will try again and again to convince, at least until the close of the polls on November 3, 2020, that they are willing to do whatever it takes to restore democracy in Venezuela.

Everyone must look carefully at what "whatever" is and whether it is truly an effort of democratic principles to promote real change or simply another sample of double standards, emotional manipulation and electoral deception.

Venezuela