[New Year's Day Parade] Hong Kong 01 estimates that more than 400,000 people march, police say 60,000 popular groups say 1.03 million

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Written by: Wei Jingquan

2020-01-02 07:27

In 2020, the FDC once again launched a parade, starting from Victoria Park and ending at Pedder Street, Central. The parade started at about 2:45 pm, during which someone broke the bank. At about 5.40 pm, the police announced the suspension of the procession.

The FDC estimated that the number of parades exceeded 1.03 million, and the police estimated that there were more than 60,000 during the peak period, a difference of more than ten times.

"Hong Kong 01" refers to the calculation method of the former president of the Hong Kong Institute of Surveyors, Liang Shouyu. It is estimated that there are about 300,000 people who have left today, and about 143,000 people are waiting for departure in Victoria Park, Tin Hau and Fortress Hill using tools. About 443,000 people.

▼ New Year's Day Parade Situation ▼

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On the first day of 2020, the FDC initiated a New Year's Day parade, which was originally scheduled to run from Victoria Park to the Chater Road pedestrian zone in Central. Subsequently, the FDC announced that the end point would be Pedder Street. The team set off at about 2:45 pm. Some people broke the bank on the way. At 5:40, the police demanded that the procession be suspended. At that time, a large number of citizens were waiting for departure in Victoria Park, MTR Tin Hau Station and Fortress Hill Station.

The FDC estimated that the number of parades exceeded 1.03 million, while the police estimated that there were more than 60,000 during the peak period, a difference of more than ten times. "Hong Kong 01" refers to the calculation method of the former president of the Hong Kong Institute of Surveyors, Liang Shouyu, and it is estimated that about 300,000 people have set off from Victoria Park. According to the map tool, it is estimated that there are still 143,000 people waiting to leave; the total number is about 443,000.

The route of New Year's Day parade in 2020 and the scope of the parade. 制 Hong Kong 01 Cartography﹚

Conveyor concept: number of parades = crowd density x area occupied x number of runs

Liang Shouzhen's method is to imagine the parade route as a conveyor belt, carrying batches of parade personnel from the starting point to the end point; and multiplying the crowd density and the area occupied, we can get how many parade people per turn (That is, the number of people on the parade route when the head of the team reaches the end); then multiply by the number of operations to get the total number of parades.

Liang Shouzhen had calculated that on June 16th, when the FDC estimated 2 million people marched on the day, although the density of people in different streets varied, the average density was about 2.5 people per square meter, and the total number of parades that day was estimated to be 1.4 million The lower and upper limit of the number of participants is 980,000 and 1.8 million, respectively. Police estimated that there were 338,000 people at the peak.

At nearly 3 pm, overlook the meeting point of Victoria Park from a height. (Photo by Ou Jiale)

"Hong Kong 01" estimates: about 443,000 people participated in the parade

Liang Shouzhen pointed out to "Hong Kong 01" that compared with June last year, the way citizens participate in the procession has been greatly different. For example, many people have joined or left the team early, and many people tend to arrive later and set off. Adjustment.

With reference to Liang's calculation method, during the parade, he measured it along Hennessy Road (including Sogo Department Store, Fleming Road intersection, and Dagu Square area). It is estimated that the average crowd density is about 2.5 people per square meter. The reporter used Sogo Department Store to cross the road as the starting point of the "conveyor belt" and Pedder Street as the end point. It was calculated that it would take 1.1 hours for the "conveyor belt" to run once. During the procession, some demonstrators broke the bank, etc., and the procession was temporarily stopped. Later, the police demanded that the procession be suspended earlier than 5.40. Therefore, the "conveyor belt" can only be estimated to run only 1.97 times. Based on this calculation, there are about 300,000 citizens who have set off.

In addition, there were still a large number of citizens waiting for departure from the grassland and swimming pool of Victoria Park, MTR Tin Hau, and Fortress Hill Station. At the same time, there were citizens leaving the team one by one. Therefore, it is assumed that people in this area have been waiting to make estimates. The reporter used a map tool to estimate that there were about 140,000 people waiting for departure at that time, and the limitations included the inability to count the people waiting at the MTR station and the people leaving during the waiting period.

Adding the number of people who have already started and the number of people waiting to arrive, the total number of people participating in this procession is about 443,000. The lower and upper limit of the number of participants is 310,000 and 576,000 respectively.

New Year's Day Parade Fugitive Ordinance 01 Data