The Chinese authorities' decision to completely confine the city of Wuhan, the cradle of the coronavirus pandemic, two months ago has potentially averted more than 700,000 additional cases, researchers said on Tuesday. These drastic measures adopted in the first 50 days of the epidemic have enabled other cities in the country to anticipate the crisis and try to control its spread, analyze researchers in the United States, China and the United Kingdom. , in a study published in the journal Science .
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As of the 50th day of the pandemic - February 19 - there were 30,000 cases officially declared in China, said Christopher Dye, one of its authors. "Our analysis suggests that without the ban on leaving Wuhan and the national emergency response, there would have been more than 700,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 on that date outside Wuhan," he details in a statement. These measures, he said, helped "break the chain of transmission, preventing contact between infectious people and those at risk."
To investigate the spread of the virus, the researchers notably used cell phone geolocation data. The period studied fell in particular in the middle of the Lunar New Year, the country's biggest festival which traditionally causes giant transhumances across China. Using mobile phone data, scientists were able to compare the comings and goings to and from Wuhan with those of the previous two years.
"The analyzes revealed an extraordinary reduction in travel after the travel ban imposed on January 23, 2020. With this data, we were also able to calculate the potential reduction in cases associated with Wuhan in other cities in China," said Ottar. Bjornstad, another study author, said when the Chinese authorities locked down Wuhan more than two months ago, the move was seen as a very drastic move in the fight against the spread of the pandemic. half the world has been called to confine itself.
