Even more than after the 2008 financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis that followed, the survival of the euro zone and the solidity of the single market are again at stake. The post-Covid recession and the expected rebound thereafter will be a new test for the viability of the European bloc. Economists and Union leaders all have in mind the risk of a scenario of exacerbated economic tensions between Member States emerging from the crisis. If the shock was symmetrical, its impact and the potential for rebound will be very heterogeneous. The Commission's economic forecasts forecast an average decline of 7.7% of GDP in 2020, which ranges from 4.3% in Poland to 9.7% in Greece. Overall, the countries of the South, Greece, Spain and Italy, will suffer the strongest slowdown. Germany would fare better, at -6.5%.
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"We would like to be able to say: the harder the fall was during confinement, the more vigorous the rebound", notes Louis Boisset, economist at BNP Paribas. On the contrary, the lower the
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