Julio Algañaraz
12/09/2020 12:38 PM
Clarín.com
World
Updated 12/09/2020 1:22 PM
The concern is growing among scientists and the government itself, because much depends on what happens in the coming
weeks of Christmas and New Year
.
If it is not possible to prevent with harsh containment measures the repetition of the "
joyous summer
that has cost us more than twenty thousand deaths," according to the virologist Massimo Galli, transgressions, violations of safety regulations, and triumph will be imposed. of "all together" and the conditions for a new, immediate
"boom" of infected and dead will be created
, which now number more than 60 thousand.
The falling phase of the second wave, which has been very violent (
24,000 deaths since October
) has so far registered a slow decrease in infections, a relief with fewer patients in hospitals and persistent high figures for the number of deaths than on Tuesday They were 634, the worst European data, although they are less than on November 27, when the absolute record in the pandemic was registered with 993 deaths in a single day.
This Thursday the infections were 12,756 and the deaths 499, bringing the total number of deaths to 61,739.
The
nightmare
is the Christmas and New Years movements.
In Rome, for example, which has so far coped well with the second wave.
It is the main metropolitan area of the country.
It all depends on how many people, especially from the south, will leave before the movement ban that will apply between December 21 and January 6.
The comings and goings of hundreds of thousands of people will stimulate human contacts, that is, infections.
The main means of transport are trains, but reservations on airplanes are practically full.
Those arriving from abroad will undergo controls and quarantines.
Rapid tests are envisaged at airports, in Rome and in southern Italian airports.
v 1.5
Coronavirus in Italy
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Johns Hopkins University
Infographic:
Clarín
An army of 70,000 police, police and military will also control the movements on the roads.
The governor of Puglia, Michele Emiliano, cried out in a statement:
"avoid arriving en masse."
The same alarm grows in Milan, which signals the primacy of infected and dead in this second wave.
The region of Lombardy, the richest and most industrialized, with almost eleven million inhabitants, fears a repeat of what happened on the night of March 7-8, when thousands of inhabitants of Milan and its surroundings fled en masse to their places of origin. origin in the south because the first quarantine began.
The result of these massive leaks was
the spread of the virus
in the southern regions.
The third wave is a certainty
Professor Fabrizio Pregliasco turns on the alarm lights.
He is the director of the Galeazzi Institute in Milan and a researcher at the Milanese State University.
"The third wave
is a fact
and the number of deaths that we have seems incredible to me."
He added that "we have to continue with the confinement."
The most famous scientific analyst, Professor Andrea Crisanti, from the University of Padua, says: “Under these conditions the third wave
is a certainty
.
We are in a serious and stable situation.
A worrying winter awaits us.
At the end of the year Italy will once again be the country with the most deaths in Europe ”.
Students in Turin hold an outdoor class, protesting the new lockdowns.
Photo: EFE
Crisanti was the one who achieved the massive controls of swabs to contain the epidemic, which have been disrupted in the second wave due to the number of infections, which in mid-November reached the record of 40 thousand in one day.
So far Crisanti
did not err
in any of his predictions.
Waiver of social events
“You cannot let your guard down.
Before the vaccine takes effect, months will pass and a difficult winter awaits us ”, which begins on Monday 21. Crisanti maintains that schools and factories must be closed as much as possible during the holidays to reduce infections.
In turn, Professor Pierluigi Lopaldo, epidemiologist at the University of Pisa and health adviser to the government of Puglia, launched a call: “At Christmas we must
renounce social events
and meetings, reduce human contacts to a minimum.
There will be a third wave and if it joins the final phase of the second, with a viral circulation that has decreased but continues, this could be a catastrophe ”.
All confined.
A girl paints her father's feet while the mother looks out the window, quarantined in San Fiorano.
Photo: Reuters
Dr. Nino Cartabelotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation, which monitors the evolution of the pandemic in Italy, speaks of a true tsunami (tidal wave) just around the corner.
"The risk is the massacre that will ensue if instead of closing the second wave of Covid-19 we start the third."
Professor Paolo Cremonesi, from the Galliera Hospital in Genoa, believes that "it is possible that the third wave of the pandemic will arrive
between mid-January and early February,
which we will have to deal with with a very tired medical health staff."
The fatigue of the doctors
Also depressed, because the so-called first health line, which includes hospital doctors and half a million base doctors throughout the country, records
237 doctors killed
during the pandemic.
The last four died hospitalized with the virus in the last week.
A huge group of doctors transfer a teenager to therapy in Milan.
Photo: Reuters
Professor Cremonesi highlights “
physical and nervous fatigue
, emotional participation, psychological backlash.
We work in structures that are already partly saturated, with long shifts
"ad infinitum"
complicated with the security measures that must be maintained to avoid contagions.
In addition, thousands of patients are reaching us due to the annual epidemic of winter flu, which complicates things a lot ”.
With increasing anxiety, Italy is waiting for authorization from the European Drug Agency, scheduled for Tuesday 29, to begin mass vaccination.
1.7 million doses of Pfizer's vaccine
are
already
being distributed
, which will be completed with another 1.7 million because
two applications
are necessary
.
Vaccinations, January 15
Italians hope to begin vaccinations in this country with 60 million inhabitants,
on January 15.
Italy announced that it has purchased 202 million doses of the virus vaccine from
half a dozen
large laboratories.
It is estimated that at least within six months it will have already succeeded in spreading the vaccination to most of the population.
The essential group immunity will be reached when
70% are
vaccinated
, or 42 million people.
Only then can it be said that much,
not all
, of the danger has passed.
International humanitarian organizations such as Amnesty International, Oxfam, and Global Justice, issued a statement calling on pharmaceutical companies to
renounce the intellectual property
of vaccines until the world's population is protected.
They denounced that the vaccine
is today for rich countries
that can pay for it.
So far they represent 14% of the population, which has secured 53% of the doses.
Rome, correspondent
ap
