Motorists have already noticed that fuel prices have been slowly but surely on the rise for several weeks.
According to the latest surveys carried out by the Ministry of Ecology, at the beginning of December, diesel fuel was on average at 1.25 euros per liter, SP 95 / E10 at 1.33 euros and SP98 at 1.41 euros.
That is to say increases of nearly 5% compared to their price at the beginning of June.
The difference is even more glaring with the situation observed during the first confinement.
The halt in travel had at the time led to fuel prices in the depths with lowest, at the beginning of May, at 1.16 euros for diesel, 1.21 euros for the SP 95 / E10 and 1 , 29 euro for the SP 98.
Read also: Fuels: the reduced price on SP95-E10 gasoline will be maintained in 2021
Today's prices are still far from those of the beginning of January (around 1.50 euros for diesel and the SP 95 / E10 and 1.60 euros for the SP 98) but the increase has been almost continuous since beginning of November.
Unlike in the spring, the activity was not paralyzed during this second confinement.
Travel, less constrained, was more numerous and the reopening of shops accentuated the phenomenon.
"
But the main factor which explains this increase remains the price of crude which increased
", explains a spokesperson for the French Union of Petroleum Industries.
Almost 30% increase
Over the past six months, a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, a European benchmark, has seen its price rise by nearly 30%.
After having unscrewed under 20 dollars at the end of April, it has just exceeded the threshold of 50 dollars on Thursday.
This Friday, it remains at this level at 50.08 dollars.
The progression is of the same magnitude for the WTI which returns from afar.
The US barrel had collapsed below 0 dollar, to -37.63 dollars at the end of April, unprecedented.
Today it is trading at $ 46.59.
“
The optimism of the oil markets comes from vaccines which open up prospects in terms of demand.
The Covid crisis was also a mobility crisis.
If it improves, we say to ourselves that we will perhaps be able to resume a more normal activity
, ”explains Malik Zetchi, financial analyst at Pictet Wealth Management.
Read also: Covid-19: the United States is getting closer to a vaccine
Another factor of optimism: the discipline that persists among oil producers.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its ten producer allies, including Russia, have agreed to only very slowly open the black gold tap from January.
“
The United States, which was the disruptor in the market, also decided to step on the brakes.
All this put together means that the market is still more optimistic,
”adds the specialist.
"
A fiasco of vaccination campaigns could destabilize everything
"
In the coming months, the rise in prices should continue.
“
Logically, prices at the pump will increase because refiners are forced to keep their margins.
Without forgetting the taxes which increase the price
”, warns the analyst.
The extent of this increase will depend on OPEC decisions but above all on the evolution of anti-Covid vaccines and the economic recovery.
“
If there are more vaccines, the markets will appreciate it and we can go above 50 dollars a barrel.
A fiasco of vaccination campaigns could destabilize everything.
But it's hard to imagine that next year will be worse than this year.
The markets want to believe in the recovery and the big oil producers will do everything to avoid returning to where we came from.
In any case, the threshold of 50 dollars should be kept,
”concludes Malik Zetchi.
