Boris Johnson's Mission in Scotland: There can only be unity

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson visiting a farm near Aberdeen, Scotland (2019): »Crouching, fearful creature«

Photo: ANDREW MILLIGAN / AFP

The travel warning issued by the ruling National Party (SNP) in Scotland on Monday evening came when the occasion arises: "The law in Scotland stipulates that any work that has to be done from home must also be done there," announced a speaker.

Travel, unless absolutely necessary, should be avoided.

The SNP did not name a specific addressee for its warning - but in this case everyone in the UK knew who was meant: Boris Johnson.

Hours earlier, the British media had reported that the head of government was planning a trip to the far north shortly.

The apparently hastily arranged trip, according to the London »Sun«, was like a »rescue mission«.

Johnson plans to ensnare the Scots on the ground with a "passionate appeal" to make them renounce "small-minded separatism."

All the polls speak for independence

Whether the prime minister, who has also called himself “Minister for the Union” since he took office in July 2019, will get through with this is rather questionable.

In early May, if the pandemic allows, the Scots will elect a new regional parliament.

For months now, pollsters for the SNP, which has been in power since 2011, have been predicting a landslide victory.

And the Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon is determined to let the citizens vote again on independence afterwards.

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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in Edinburgh (2019): He "fears the will of the Scots"

Photo: Duncan McGlynn / AP

In the first Independence Referendum (IndyRef1) in 2014, 55 percent of voters were in favor of the union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

But a lot has happened since then.

And all surveys meanwhile suggest that a clear majority would vote for the divorce on the second attempt.

The signs could not be better for the SNP, which despite its misleading name represents a cosmopolitan left-liberal agenda.

Since the beginning of the corona crisis, Sturgeon has cleverly used the fact that the four parts of the kingdom are responsible for their own health policies.

While Johnson unsettled the English with a zigzag course and always lagged behind the development, Sturgeon presented himself as a straightforward and empathic country mother.

The Scots feel ignored and passed over

It is true that the pandemic, measured in terms of population, was as devastating in Scotland as it was in its neighbors in the south.

Officially, more than 100,000 people have died of or with Covid-19 in the United Kingdom - in fact, according to figures from the national statistics agency, at least 20,000 more deaths.

But unlike Johnson, Sturgeon's reputation has not hurt.

She is now even more popular than Boris Johnson in large parts of England.

In addition, the Brexit, which was finally implemented at the turn of the year, angered many Scots.

In the 2016 EU referendum, you voted with a clear majority to remain in the confederation.

Since then, they have felt ignored and ignored by the Conservatives in power in London.

The fact that Northern Ireland is actually allowed to remain in the EU internal market due to a special agreement with Brussels, while Scotland has to pay for the consequences of the hard break, upsets many.

After an IndyRef2, they hope to re-enter the EU as an independent state soon.

The Scottish nationalists are so sure of their cause that they are now even going on a full confrontation course with Johnson's government.

At the weekend the SNP decided on an eleven-point roadmap for independence.

According to this, the government in Edinburgh wants to demand the constitutionally required approval for another referendum, a so-called Section 30 Order, from London immediately after an election victory in May.

Should this not happen, the legal framework for a new referendum will be created.

Sturgeon calls Johnson a "fearful being"

It is no coincidence that the declaration of war was made on the eve of the birthday of Robert Burns, one of Scotland's national poets.

On the BBC, Sturgeon mocked the British Prime Minister in Burns' words as a "crouching, fearful creature."

Johnson "fears the will of the Scots, he is afraid of democracy."

At the same time, however, Sturgeon asserted that she did not want an unconstitutional vote on the model of Catalonia, but a "legal referendum".

Constitutional lawyers have already outlined how this could work without permission from London.

Accordingly, the government in Edinburgh could initially only ask the Scots whether they should enter into negotiations with London on possible independence.

A trick - but one whose dynamic could lead to London giving in at the end and having to allow IndyRef2.

So far, Johnson has rigorously ruled that out.

Just recently he said in an interview that there were about 40 years between the two British EU referendums in 1975 and 2016;

this is "the right time span" for such votes, which experience has shown in his country to be "not exactly pleasant".

Fewer and fewer Britons feel British

But even in Johnson's cabinet, not everyone believes that a strict no to Scotland can be sustained in the long run.

Rather, Johnson now has to do what he promised when he took office, now that he has managed Brexit: to hold together the parts of the kingdom that are drifting apart.

His planned trip to Scotland should therefore not be the only one.

"We are faced with the choice between a reformed state or a 'failed state'."

Gordon Brown

A survey for the London Times recently revealed how enormous Johnson's task is.

In all four parts of the country, fewer and fewer people call themselves British.

In addition to the Scots, the Northern Irish are particularly drawn away from England.

There, too, a majority of the people want a vote on a possible reunification with the Republic of Ireland in the next five years.

Even in Wales, support for independence is growing.

Especially bitter for Johnson: Almost half of the English would not be sad (28 percent) or would even welcome it (17) if the Scots went their own way.

London plans campaign for the Union

However, Johnson will not watch the kingdom collapse without a fight.

He has set up a task force, led by one of the key Brexit negotiators, to explore ways to prevent Scotland from seceding.

With a large-scale campaign, London wants to convince the Scots of the advantages of the kingdom freed from EU shackles.

If that doesn't work and if a referendum is inevitable, Downing Street Edinburgh wants to roll further obstacles in the way.

Dress Code: Souvenir Shop in Edinbugh

Photo: SUZANNE PLUNKETT / REUTERS

For example, London could try to force an independence vote to be binding only after 60 percent of the votes cast.

Or the third option on the ballot paper, next to leaving or staying, could be a much greater degree of autonomy for Scotland.

How exactly this would work is currently being explored by one of Johnson's predecessors.

Labor man Gordon Brown, a Scot, recently reported back from political oblivion.

He shares with Johnson the fear of the Balkanization of his home country.

In order to prevent this, the government must quickly and decisively renew the foundations of the state, Brown recently wrote in the Daily Telegraph: "We are faced with the choice between a reformed state or a failed state."

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