New survey with key data: how many are the 'No crack' and how could they vote this year

2021-03-11T14:16:24.580Z

The study was carried out by the consulting firm Pérez Aramburú, one of those that officially worked for the Cambiemos government.

Eduardo Paladini

03/11/2021 11:01

Clarín.com
Politics

Updated 03/11/2021 11:01

An electoral mantra that

Horacio Rodríguez Larreta

repeats

- and that exasperates his anti-K allies - is that close to 50% of the voters are

outside the crack

and will be the decisive group for the 2023 presidential race. That would explain their calculated balance .

And some reason seems to have the head of the Buenos Aires government, or at least his hypothesis coincides with the numbers of a new national survey that

Clarín

advances

this Thursday.

This is a study by

Pérez Aramburú & Asociados

, one of the consulting firms that officially worked for the Cambiemos government and has been analyzing the scenarios for the 2021 legislative elections.

The survey was carried out between February 23 and 25, with

1,409 cases

The results were presented with a margin of error of +/- 2.7%.

In the 28-page report, the weight of the

"No crack"

is weighted at the start

It places them

at around 60%

When discrimination is made by gender, age, socioeconomic level and area of residence, it is concluded that the

"No crack"

more among women

(66%, against 54% of men),

young people

(63% among those of 18 to 29, against 59% of those from 30 to 49 and 60% of those over 50), those of the

upper class

(63%, against 62% of the middle and 55% of the low class) and those who

live in the Interior

(63%, against 57% of the GBA and 56% of the porteños).

National survey of Pérez Aramburú & Asociados, to study the "No crack".

Then, when the respondents are asked to evaluate the national management, count their economic expectations or rate the images of the main politicians, it is clear that

the "No crack" have a rather oppositional profile

According to this survey, their opinions are closer to those of those who define themselves as "macristas" than to those who identify themselves as "Kirchnerists."

An example

: when asked about the current economic situation, only 23% of Kirchnerists rate it as negative, against 80% of Macristas and 67% of "No crack" who choose the same answer.

Another sample

: 88% of those consulted K approve the management of

Alberto Fernández

, against only 11% of the macristas and 25% of the "No crack" who also do so.

National survey of Pérez Aramburú & Asociados, to study the "No crack".

The last

: only 18% of the Kirchnerists believe that the management decisions are made by

Cristina Kirchner

, against 78% of the Macristas and 51% of the "No crack" who believe something similar.

Another interesting fact about this group that departs from polarization is its

rejection

- with nuances -

of the two emblematic figures

of this fight: the vice president and

Mauricio Macri

- Among the "No crack",

Cristina

combines

22% of positive, 10% of regular and 62% of negative

(plus 5% of ns / nc).

- While

Macri

, within the same group, adds

25% positive, 24% regular and 48% negative

(complete 3% of ns / nc).

Voting intention for legislative

At the end of the report,

Pérez Aramburú

enters the electoral chapter.

And there again appear the

"No crack"

with a profile more oppositional than official.

"In October there will be elections to elect national Deputies and Senators. Although it is still missing, today would you be

closer to voting for candidates of the national government or candidates of the opposition
?"

the consultant asked.

National survey of Pérez Aramburú & Asociados, to study the "No crack".

- The

Kirchnerists and the Macristas

exhibited a

similar level of loyalty

: 84% of the former would vote for government candidates and the latter, 81%, for opposition candidates.

- While the "

No crack"

were divided as follows:

25% would vote for government candidates, 49% for opponents and 26% still do not know or did not answer

National survey of Pérez Aramburú & Asociados, to study the "No crack".

Then, the firm

inquires about the "useful vote"

"Some people say that in these legislative elections they will vote for the candidate they like the most, regardless of whether they have many or few chances of winning, and others say that they will vote for the candidate they like the most. The more chances they have of beating Kirchnerism. What are you going to do? "

- Among the

"No crack"

44%

anticipate a

useful anti-k vote

and 42%, a freer decision (14% ns / nc).

National survey of Pérez Aramburú & Asociados, to study the "No crack".

This oppositional preponderance manifests itself again among the

"No crack"

in the last frame of the study, when the

electoral floors and ceilings

of the two main political spaces