The Ipsos Sopra / Steria survey for Le Parisien-Today in France, which places delinquency in the first concern of Ile-de-France residents (45%), confirms the RN's intuition, which has made insecurity its priority subject for the regions in Ile-de-France.
From his first candidate interview in our columns on March 4, the head of the list Jordan Bardella, who had made his first campaign trip to the Sarcelles police station (Val-d'Oise), revealed his slogan: "The choice of security ".
And attacked with vitriol the president (Free!) Outgoing of the region who would have had, according to her, the "soft hand" on the subject.
An angle of attack that ulcerates Valérie Pécresse who, too, has made the subject of security one of her favorite themes.
The regional president recalls that the elected RNs did not vote in favor of its "security shield" in 2016, which had notably financed the security chamber of the Sarcelles police station.
"When you cross the line, there are no more limits", she said, quoting the humorist Pierre Dac, concluding: "Bardella is the Pierre Dac of the RN!
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"We will finally be able to talk about this subject in a campaign", rejoices in any case in advance the vice-president of the RN, who denounces "laxity in criminal matters" as well as the "decrease in the means allocated to the forces of the 'order'.
An offensive that echoes the national strategy of the party: Jordan Bardella not hiding to make regional in Ile-de-France more "the last pit stop" before the presidential election than a goal of conquest.
That's good because, with 17% of the votes in the first round and 19% in the second (whether in a triangular or a quadrangular), the RN candidate is not in a position to scare the outgoing president.
"This is not the most promising region for the RN," concedes the person concerned, for whom this score constitutes the best for a first round tested in a survey in the Ile-de-France region.
In second position, far behind Valérie Pécresse, but well ahead of any leftist list, the RN proves that its electoral potential remains strong in the capital region.
Above all, Jordan Bardella can congratulate himself on benefiting from the most solid electoral base, since 86% of his voters assure that their choice is "final", far ahead of Valérie Pécresse (56%) and the LFI candidate Clémentine Autain (50%).
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Above all, the number 2 of the RN increases his score by 2 points between the first and the second rounds, while his predecessor Wallerand de Saint-Just had lost 4 points in 2015. At the time, it was for RN sympathizers to “vote useful” against the socialist Claude Bartolone, whose party had led the region for 17 years.
This year, the “risk” of tilting to the left seems reduced and does not encourage RN voters to defer to a ballot other than that stamped Bardella in the second round.
97% of them will remain loyal to him, according to our survey.
Last lesson for number 2 of the RN who could soon take the interim presidency of the party: his notoriety is relative.
The rate of Ile-de-France residents who do not know him stands at 44%, a figure much lower than Clémentine Autain (53%), the national secretary of EELV Julien Bayou (65%) or the head of the LREM list and deputy of the Val-de-Marne Laurent Saint-Martin (89%).
But the MEP is much more unknown than the candidate supported by the PS and former journalist Audrey Pulvar (21%) and of course Valérie Pécresse (10%).
"We cannot have the advantages of renewal and that of notoriety", philosopher Jordan Bardella.
Methodology:
Ipsos / Sopra Steria survey, carried out for Le Parisien-Today in France and France Info on a sample of 1000 people registered on the electoral lists of Ile-de-France, constituting a representative sample of the inhabitants of Ile-de-France aged 18 and over, surveyed online from April 5 to 7, 2021.
