Agnès Verdier-Molinié is director of the Ifrap foundation (think-tank) and recently published
Can France hold out still long?
(Albin Michel, 2021).
The confinements cost France 7.9 points of GDP in 2020. They cost us the growth of the first months of 2021 with a decline in national wealth of 0.1 point in the first quarter of this year.
The compulsory health pass from 17 years old from July 21 (from 12 years old on September 1) for places of leisure: zoos, amusement and culture parks, historical monuments and gardens or on August 1 to go to restaurant, swimming pool or shopping in a shopping center ... still risks giving a blow on the head to thousands of very small businesses, tourism SMEs and shopping centers throughout France.
It is paradoxical to want to achieve 6% growth in 2021 while putting in place - at the last moment - restrictions that will distract the French from consuming and going out of everyday life during the summer.
In parallel with the vaccination slots that are filling up, the reservation books in the tourism sector are empty, customers call panic-stricken to find out if they can be reimbursed.
It must be said that, within the time limit, it is materially impossible for the French who are not, to be fully vaccinated by August 1.
Waiting in line every other day to do PCRs for the whole family at the local pharmacy is not really a dream vacation after months of health constraints.
Agnes Verdier-Molinié
Less than half of French people over 11 are now vaccinated with two doses. More than half of French people will therefore be held back all summer in their consumption choices. Quite simply because waiting in line every two days to do PCRs for the whole family at the local pharmacy is not really a vacation program that makes you dream after months of health constraints. And all the more so since no one can be sure that these measures would allow us to avoid a 4th confinement in the fall.
Appeals to the Council of State are legitimately starting to arrive, the debate is in full swing behind the scenes and the arbitrations of the various parties are far from being rendered. Fortunately! There is still a Parliament, a Council of State and a Constitutional Council which guarantee a distribution of powers and a rule of law. It is therefore time to ask the question: will these constraints strengthen national wealth or plant growth?
All professionals in the sectors concerned report negative impacts between 18% and 60% less of annual turnover.
Note that in the tourism sector, 60% of turnover is made between July and September.
The tourism sector represents around 170 billion euros per year in turnover in France for a normal year.
In 2020, the loss for tourism is estimated between 60 and 75 billion euros, despite a rather good season in July and August last year.
These losses would have a net negative impact on national wealth between 0.3 and 0.7 point of GDP.
Agnes Verdier-Molinié
If we remained on the declarations of the President of the Republic, we can duly consider that the impact on tourism companies would be between 20 and 35% of annual turnover. That is to say between 30 and 60 billion losses. These losses would have a net negative impact on national wealth between 0.3 and 0.7 point of GDP. And again, that doesn't count the effect on malls. France's 2021 growth would necessarily be impacted.
These decisions, if they were applied, would also have the corollary of new public spending to help the companies concerned, which can be estimated at several billion between support funds and short-time working, while France's 2021 public deficit is already forecast at 228 billion euros.
Not to mention also the lower tax and social revenues.
It is very damaging, for the French and for Parliament, that at this stage, there is no impact study on our economy in the government's bill of these decisions when it is a obligation since 2009.
Finally, it should be noted that in Europe, no country has adopted such coercive constraints:
While waiting for the return of the Council of State which had given its approval for the health pass on condition that daily activities are not concerned, there is still time to find a little savvy.
Agnes Verdier-Molinié
In Italy, no health pass for access to transport, dining or leisure places and wearing a mask which is no longer compulsory outdoors.
Among our German neighbors, Chancellor Angela Merkel said she did not want to "
follow the path proposed by France
" and rather trust the German population to continue to be vaccinated.
The health pass is not required for access to restaurants, places of culture or leisure.
In Spain, there are currently no coercive measures concerning access to places of culture, catering or leisure.
Finally, in the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson continues to reopen the country.
No more restrictive measures from July 19, and bars, restaurants, nightclubs or sports venues will be able to open to their maximum capacities without any control whatsoever.
Admittedly, Denmark and Austria have implemented a health pass to access restaurants, hotels, theaters ... But with a major difference: self-tests at the entrance are authorized and valid, and Danish fines are not 45,000 euros but 400 euros for establishments which do not control.
While waiting for the return of the Council of State which had given its approval for the health pass provided that daily activities are not concerned, there is still time to find a little savvy, to backpedal and to amend these announcements which will be immediately impact our growth in order, supposedly, to protect it tomorrow.
