Flood disasters, heat waves, forest fires: Extreme weather conditions are increasing and frightening people.
A consequence of climate change?
We have Dr.
Interviewed by Michael Sachweh.
He studied geography and meteorology and heads a private weather service that works primarily for Bavarian radio.
Sachweh worked in climate research for several years, wrote eight books on meteorology and taught as a lecturer at the universities in Munich and Augsburg.
The qualified meteorologist has lived in Erding for four years.
Mr. Sachweh, in our conversation two years ago you said that climate change would not be a cause for despair. In view of the recent extreme weather disasters, have you changed your mind?
I still think people shouldn't despair in the face of global warming, because fear is a bad advisor. Not to be forgotten is the fact that global warming also has advantages, for example in the transport of goods, when the polar seas become ice-free and the sea route to Asia can be significantly shortened or the permafrost areas can be reclaimed. The recreational value of a warm summer with lots of sun is also undisputed. But climate change also has undeniably negative consequences. We should arm ourselves against them and take appropriate precautions. The reduction in CO2 emissions required for climate protection is only possible with a global alliance of industrial nations. I'm more pessimistic as to whether that will work.The focus should therefore be primarily on adapting to future living conditions.
What changes do we have to be prepared for?
There has been a clear increase in temperatures and a rise in hot days (over 30 degrees) in Bavaria for around 30 years.
However, the number of heavy rain days with more than 20 liters per square meter has not changed.
While the number of major winter storms tends to decrease, we are seeing a prolongation of the heat waves and the locations with local thunderstorms.
This is related to the jet stream, which is slowed down by global warming, while at the same time increasing the water vapor content of the air.
What is the greatest danger?
I see the greatest danger in the long periods of heat.
Although they do not offer such media-effective images as heavy rain and floods, they claim a lot more deaths.
Are all regions in Bavaria equally affected?
All regions are affected by climate change, but in different ways.
Low-lying areas, where it is already warmer anyway, will have to struggle even more with the increasing heat.
In higher regions, sudden floods tend to be a problem.
The milder, rainier winters as well as the summer heavy rains, which unfold the greatest potential for severe weather in mountain and valley regions, contribute to this.
What options do you see for pension provision?
In the event of an acute disaster, it would be important to improve the warning chain in order to inform citizens of the impending danger in good time.
You should definitely reactivate the good old sirens, plus running texts in current programs on television, as has long been the case in the USA.
What can you do with flood protection?
For flood protection, the dimensioning of the dams should not only be based on the water levels of the last 40 years, but also on the historical highs, because there have always been major floods.
It is better to remove endangered areas in river valleys from the development at the planning stage.
What do you think is most important?
The most important thing seems to me to be protection against heat waves.
This requires a lot more air-conditioned rooms, especially in old people's homes and hospitals.
When it comes to air conditioning, Germany is still practically a developing country.
In order to protect yourself from financial ruin in extreme weather conditions, elementary insurance will probably become more and more important.
In your opinion, what weather conditions can we expect in autumn?
After the extremely changeable summer, we could expect a beautiful Indian summer and golden October as a kind of "reparation".
However, this is pure speculation, as we meteorologists now achieve a high hit rate for short-term periods, but for long-term forecasts I can only rely on my gut feeling.
Consequences of the jet stream
A jet stream is an air flow that is created by the temperature difference between the Arctic and the tropics.
It is responsible for the creation of many ups and downs, and it also acts as your conveyor belt.
Since the Arctic warms up more than the tropics, the north-south temperature difference decreases and the jet stream loses its dynamism as a result.
As a result, the hot and heavy rain areas stay in place longer.
Gerda and Peter Gebel
