Tensions between China and Taiwan are mounting.
Taipei therefore wants to deepen relations with Europe and the USA.
The island is helped by its semiconductor industry.
Taipei / Beijing / Munich - Threats, fighter planes and fear of an invasion: The tensions between China * and Taiwan are pushing into the international limelight like never before.
There are growing concerns that the situation in the Far East could escalate.
This is creating a movement in Europe and the USA to deepen relations with Taipei.
For the first time in the EU, there is a real debate on Taiwan.
What exactly was going on?
The Chinese armed forces recently dispatched 149 Chinese fighter jets within a week to Taiwan's so-called Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), which is far larger than Taiwan's airspace and extends to the coast of China.
According to a report by the British
Guardian
, data from these missions show that the proportion of fighter jets and bombers in these aircraft missions is increasing.
In the past, China mainly sent surveillance aircraft.
The spokesman for the Taiwan Office in the State Council *, Ma Xiaoguang, told journalists in Beijing on Wednesday that these maneuvers were necessary * "to protect national sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Taiwan and China: Maneuvers as a sign of growing tensions
China regards Taiwan * as a breakaway province and has never ruled out violent reunification.
It starts intimidating maneuvers mostly in connection with national holidays or out of anger about certain events.
The intensity of the maneuvers has increased since Tsai Ing-wen of the China-critical Democratic Progressive Party DPP has been president of Taiwan.
The DPP had previously called for formal independence from China;
Today, however, Tsai speaks of maintaining the status quo that has been in place since 1949, a de facto independence without diplomatic recognition.
Taiwan holds elections, has a free press, its own military, and its own currency.
China's Communist Party * has never ruled Taiwan.
Despite the rattling of sabers, it is completely unclear whether the People's Republic is really seriously considering an invasion.
China and Taiwan: Armed Forces on National Remembrance Day
As Taiwan and China recently celebrated the 110th anniversary of the First Republican Revolution, a verbal exchange of blows began.
In 1911, Sun Yat-sen, respected on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, overthrew the last Chinese imperial dynasty and established the first republic.
China's President Xi Jinping * called for “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan on the anniversary day.
"Nobody should underestimate the determination, will and ability of the Chinese people to protect national sovereignty and territorial integrity," said Xi.
Those "who betray their motherland will not end well."
Sounds bad, even if, unlike a few months ago, Xi didn't directly threaten war this time.
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen immediately rejected Xi's request.
Taiwan will strengthen its defense capabilities to ensure that no one can force the country on the path that China envisions for Taiwan, said Tsai.
The government in Beijing has no freedom, democracy or sovereignty to offer the 23 million people in Taiwan.
"We will do our best to prevent the status quo from being changed unilaterally," said Tsai.
The military then paraded with helicopters, fighter jets, tanks and missiles.
Defense Minister Chiu Kuo Cheng warned that China will be able to carry out a "full-scale" invasion by 2025.
Strengthening its own military has never been a priority on the island.
+
Tsai Ing-wen at the Taipei Military Parade: Receiving Taiwan's Status Quo
© Ceng Shou Yi / Imago
It is also new that Europe and America are increasingly getting involved in security issues in the Indo-Pacific *.
The “Taiwan question”, which has been called by pessimists time and again as the trigger for a possible Third World War, is gaining more and more weight in geopolitical considerations.
Individual US military officials also warned of an imminent attack by China on the island.
US warships regularly sail through the Taiwan Strait, and there have been joint sea maneuvers in the region with France and Japan.
EU: Debate on Taiwan and China
In Europe, the Taiwan question has been a political issue since the small EU country Lithuania messed with Beijing *. Vilnius recently allowed Taipei to open a "Taiwan Mission" in the capital. The use of the name Taiwan is provocative for China as it alludes to an independent country. At the Olympics, for example, the island's athletes act as “Chinese Taipei”; Informal offices, which are supposed to remind of diplomatic missions as little as possible, are therefore normal for most states. Beijing and Vilnius called their ambassadors back because of the dispute. China also stopped rail freight traffic to Lithuania in protest.
The debate on Taiwan is mainly pushing the EU Parliament *.
In September, its Foreign Affairs Committee called for "steps towards a bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan and meaningful participation of Taiwan in international organizations".
It also proposed, according to a June version of the document, that the EU trade office in Taipei should be renamed the “European Union Office in Taiwan”.
The parliament also took a direct stand behind the position of Lithuania * in the dispute with China.
EU Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager also called on Tuesday in the plenary session of parliament that the EU should react more strongly to a Chinese threat to Taiwan.
So far, however, little has been heard from the capitals of the EU countries.
Taiwan's trump card in Europe: The semiconductor industry
Taiwan itself is using the momentum created by the tensions with China in the international arena - and is systematically trying to deepen relations with the governments of the USA *, the EU, Australia, Japan and India. Taipei likes to emphasize its central role as a leading supplier of semiconductors. Chips are currently scarce than ever in the global economy. They are missing in the electronics industry or in car construction *. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) has a 53 percent market share in global custom chip manufacturing. This raises concerns that cross-strait instability could disrupt supplies.
Taiwan has fostered a “great ecosystem for chip manufacturing” for decades, Taiwan's Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua recently told
Bloomberg
News Agency
.
“The international community should take Taiwan's security more seriously, so that Taiwan can continue to offer everyone a stable service and be a very good partner for everyone.” The statements show how politicized the semiconductor issue has become - and that it could well play into Taiwan’s hands.
Taiwan is pushing for trade deals with Europe
Since mid-September, Taiwan has been pushing the EU * to start negotiations on a trade agreement.
The EU and Taiwan could work together on the Internet of Things, high-tech medical devices, biotechnology or intelligent energy solutions, Economy Minister Wang said on Friday.
"We have had bilateral trade talks on a variety of topics, and our aim is to take Taiwan-European cooperation between companies to the next level."
So there are two agreements at stake - one for trade and one for investment.
The latter is all the more spicy when the EU Parliament recently put the controversial CAI * investment agreement with China in the freezer because of a sanctions dispute with Beijing *.
As long as Beijing's sanctions are in place, CAI will not ratify it.
The contested semiconductors are meanwhile the ace up Taiwan's sleeve.
Many countries are struggling to set up their own chip industry - including the EU.
A bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan could be an important catalyst for Brussels.
The EU is already the largest investor in Taiwan.
Conversely, TSMC is considering manufacturing semiconductors in Germany.
USA: Arms deliveries to Taiwan
However, only the USA supplies significant quantities of defense weapons to Taiwan.
You are in a balancing act that is getting more and more difficult.
Just a few days ago, US President Joe Biden * affirmed the recognition of the one-China principle in a phone call with Xi.
At the same time, however, he recently described the support for Taiwan as “rock solid” and is taking a confrontational course towards Beijing.
US media reported last week that the American military has been supporting Taiwan with military training on site * for years, for example to train the Taiwanese armed forces in connection with the purchase of weapons from the USA.
The UK's
Financial Times
wrote about social media posts from the time of the Trump presidency showing the US military training in Taiwan.
China's State Department immediately called on the US to withdraw military personnel from Taiwan.
China and Taiwan: what's next?
Whether China will really attack Taiwan is in the stars.
It would be the nightmare scenario for everyone: for Taiwan itself, for the USA, for Europe.
President Tsai wrote Tuesday that a Taiwan case to China would have "catastrophic consequences" for the entire region.
Taipei wants to use better deterrence to raise the price of an invasion so high * that China refrains from attacking, even if it could win. Defense Minister Chiu emphasized in front of the parliament: "The Republic of China will definitely not start a war" - the Republic of China is the official name of Taiwan. Nobody expects a unilateral declaration of independence.
Even so, polls express growing concern among Taiwanese about a military conflict.
In a recent local poll, 50 percent feared a war in the coming year.
A year ago, more than three quarters had already said that they would fight in the event of an attack.
Three quarters of the people see themselves as Taiwanese, only seven percent as Chinese.
Xi's army may be able to win a war.
She tends not to win hearts with threatening gestures.
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