Sha Banshan's Notes | Chief Executive Election has changed from "Macau Mode" to "Any Choice" for the Election Committee?

News from Beijing recently revealed to Sha Banshan that with the experience of the Legislative Council election, Beijing now prefers to conduct the election of the chief executive next year in the form of "competition," and it is very likely that two people will compete.

The news even pointed out that in order to experience the "diversity" of the candidates and minimize the impact and impact on the operation of the Hong Kong government, it is estimated that one of the two chief candidates is from a high-level government and the other is from outside the government. Two senior executives of the current governance team participated in the contest at the same time.

In this regard, Sha Banshan immediately went out to inquire. One of the senior establishments who did not want to be named analyzed the latest signs that the market for Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s re-election is rapidly fading. If there is no Beijing "And if another candidate enters the gate to participate in the competition, it is estimated that Carrie Lam will voluntarily give up seeking re-election because of his low chance of winning.

In addition, if Beijing only allows one high-ranking Hong Kong government to run for the election, it is currently more likely that the Financial Secretary Chen Maobo or the Chief Secretary for Administration Li Jiachao will fall, and the former is more likely to come out.

As for contenders outside the government, it is more difficult to speculate that there are at least four or five dark horses circulating in the market, including former WHO Director-General Margaret Chan, former Chairman of the University of Hong Kong Council Li Guozhang, and former Chief Executive Officer of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Li Xiaojia, the convener of the Executive Council, Chen Zhisi, the former chief executive of the Monetary Authority, Chen Delin, and even the former chief executive Liang Zhenying are all ready to move.

There was a general speculation in the political circle earlier that the next chief executive election is likely to adopt the "Macau model", that is, only one person will be selected for the election. Is it true that the election day of the chief executive on March 27 will really become the election committee?

The senior establishment believes that the smooth holding and completion of the Legislative Council election last month is a key.

This is because according to its understanding, the Central Government has completed the "post-match analysis" of the elections, and believes that "every seat has an election" is an unprecedented experience of Hong Kong's democratic progress. "If the chief executive election is successful, Competitiveness can further establish and consolidate this "democratic model with Hong Kong characteristics," which is completely in line with the spirit of the "Democratic Development of Hong Kong under "One Country, Two Systems"" white paper.

The Central Government earlier issued the "Democratic Development in Hong Kong under "One Country, Two Systems"" white paper, which mentioned that the Communist Party of China and the Chinese government have confidence, wisdom, and ability to "build and develop democracy that meets the actual conditions of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region."

A business person said to Sha Banshan that the new election system has undergone elections by the Election Committee and the Legislative Council, and has implemented the principle of "patriots ruling Hong Kong". It has ensured that the SAR's governance is firmly in the hands of the patriots. He believes that the election of the chief executive can also follow. This path expands "Hong Kong-style democracy", such as opening up to multi-person competition.

The person mentioned the 2014 political reform dispute. The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress issued the "831 Decision" on the Chief Executive's universal suffrage plan, which included allowing 2 to 3 candidates to enter the election. Since Beijing has repeatedly stated that the goal of "dual universal suffrage" has not changed. , The next chief executive election can be a "rehearsal", allowing two people to compete in the same field, competing for political platforms and ideas, so that those who can live up to it.

In 2019, He Yicheng was the only candidate to be elected as the Chief Executive of Macau.

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If so, the chief executive is "you have to choose"! The first question must be: Will Carrie Lam fall off the court again?

A source close to the government pointed out to Sha Banshan that Beijing has so far not sent any signal on the candidate for chief executive, so as to avoid too many speculations from the outside world, and no one has a clear "blessing", it may be postponed until the eve of the nomination period in February. As for other potential candidates, they can only stand still.

However, if Beijing decides to allow "real competition", Lam Cheng will probably not go to the horse, because "you should win, and you lose face." Without "blessings", it is better to complete this term and bid farewell to Tamar!

Political circles have always said that once the chief executive’s election is open to competition, the establishment will be torn apart again. The source said "this is not the same as the past" because "patriots ruling Hong Kong" has been implemented, and those who pass the qualification review should be acceptable. Refers to the "White Paper" issued by the Information Office of the State Council, which shows that the new election system creates favorable conditions for double universal suffrage, reflecting that the central government is still aiming for this.

He believes that the current 1,500-member Election Committee can be a prototype of the "Nomination Committee" under Article 45 of the Basic Law. If the Chief Executive is elected in March by the election commissioner to elect the Chief Executive by free will, once the system is effective, the next One step is to universally elect the chief executive by one person, one vote for all Hong Kong citizens. This may be a "democratic development path with Hong Kong characteristics."

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