Omicron spurs global growth

The Omicron variant may be less virulent than the previous ones, but the contagious wave that has been sweeping the world since last fall is causing growth to cough.

This is the finding of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which published its latest economic forecasts on Tuesday.

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“

” the report notes.

It's simple, with the exception of Japan, the forecasts of all the major countries are corrected downwards compared to the last estimates, published in October.

Thus, the increase in GDP for the United States for 2022 is reduced by 1.2%, to 4% and that of China by 0.8% (to 4.8%).

As a mechanical consequence of this revision of the two heavyweights, which together weigh a very large third of the planet's GDP, global growth will be 4.4%, or 0.5% less than forecast in October.

A general slowdown

France is no exception to this IMF shooting correction.

Which forecasts growth of 3.5% in 2022 (revised from 0.4%), a more pessimistic outlook than that of Bercy, which for the moment is aiming for an expansion of 4%.

In Europe, the IMF indicates that it is Germany, the most exposed to supply chain disruptions, because it is more dependent on foreign trade than France, which suffers from a greater downward revision (-0 .8%).

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The ingredients of this general slowdown add up: the Omicron variant has forced many countries to take measures limiting activity while the massive contaminations cause absenteeism; rising energy prices and bottlenecks fuel inflation; and in China, the slowdown in the real estate sector and consumption are weighing on growth.

High inflation is likely to persist throughout the year, which the Fund did not expect in October, as most central bankers described rising prices as a “

”.

In addition to the near doubling of oil prices in 2021, rising food prices are hitting certain regions particularly hard, such as sub-Saharan Africa.

A two-speed recovery

IMF economists have calculated that supply chain disruptions alone will have cut global growth in 2021 by 0.5 to 1 point and fueled inflation by one point.

They expect a gradual return to normal flows, on sea and on land, by the end of the year.

This recovery will still depend on the evolution of the pandemic.

Prolonged constraints in ports, trains or truck fleets could fuel inflation expectations, and hence an actual rise in prices.

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The IMF is still concerned about the two-speed recovery, which separates rich countries on the one hand and emerging or developing countries on the other, which have not been able to deploy as many budgetary resources to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis.

Washington economists, like their entire corporation, have become a bit of an epidemiologist for the past two years, pleading for massive vaccination against Covid on a global scale.

In rich countries, about 70% of the population is up to date with the vaccine.

This is the case for 4% of the inhabitants of the poorest countries.