The Iranian nuclear program, the threat of damage to the special relationship with the US and the danger of a flare-up in the Palestinian arena:
these are the main threats pointed out by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in the strategic assessment for 2023 in Israel.
According to the document, the nuclear program is the most serious potential external threat.
The report warns that the program is currently in its most dangerous state ever and is very close to being a nuclear threshold state. It was also emphasized that the promotion of the nuclear program without an agreement limit and without the influence of the military threat creates the reality of Iran as a threshold state.
The Purdue Nuclear Site // Photo: AFP
According to the report, in the field of Iran's nuclear and conventional equipment, the year 2023 will mark a further worsening of the situation. The document states that Iran is far from a decision to break into a bomb, without technological limitations, and there is "increasing difficulty to prevent a bomb break through military action", if it is indeed decided that way. Furthermore, Iran continues its establishment and regional subversion.
The document states that, in this context, close coordination with the US on the issue of the nuclear program is required. That is, to promote with the US a move to stop Iranian progress in the nuclear project and to build capabilities, including military ones, to neutralize it.
"Israel must push for the declaration of the failure of the negotiations to return to the nuclear agreement and the implementation of the European sanctions subject to the violation of the agreement, act to expand the sanctions due to the violation of human rights and the suppression of protest; and continue to promote an operational option," it said.
The most explosive arena
According to the report, in the Palestinian arena, Israel is at the beginning of a "perfect storm". The Institute's researchers identify this arena as the most explosive in the coming year. In the absence of a visible solution towards the end of Mahmoud Abbas' term as chairman of the Palestinian Authority, and against a background of growing unrest among a broad stratum of young people, increasing Danger of a violent awakening, which could flare up, among other things and not only, in response to Israel's moves.
All this, at a time when the strategic threat of slipping into the reality of one state, which would endanger the Jewish-democratic identity of Israel, is getting worse.
Authority head Abu Mazen, photo: Reuters
According to the document, the continued existence of the Palestinian Authority, despite its problems and shortcomings, is a distinct Israeli interest.
The approach of the end of the Abu Mazen era requires maintaining the relationship with the top of the Palestinian Authority and its possible replacements, with the understanding that a dramatic weakening of the Authority is against Israel's interest.
Apart from this, the document states that preparations must also be made for military torture and operations against the terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon.
At the same time, a re-examination of the campaign between the wars is required, a focus on Iran's emissaries and a return to the policy of ambiguity.
The report also notes the importance of deepening cooperation with the countries of the Abraham Accords.
"internal conflict"
The report was submitted to President Yitzhak Herzog at an event held at the President's residence. The researchers led by the head of the institute, Prof. Manuel Trachtenberg and the director of the institute, Major General (ret.) Tamir Himan, handed the document to the president.
Herzog // Photo: Gideon Markovich,
"In the face of the Iranian threat and its dangerous implications in the region, cooperation with our friends is essential," said President Herzog, "this is a regional interest of the first order. However, an arena that is of particular concern is the 'internal arena'. The security of the State of Israel involves its national resilience. We are in a period of crisis and conflict Internally, they are particularly dangerous, and in our ability to deal with and contain the deepest differences of opinion, without giving up our faith. We have the power to live together and act as one nation. Bridging the divisions, including the political ones, is perhaps the most important step in preserving Israel."
The assessment emphasizes the acceleration of the competition to shape the world order, which requires an adapted Israeli policy.
In focus: a challenge by China and Russia to the dominant Western order.
From an American point of view, this is a political and ideological struggle between democracies and autocracies;
in economic and technological competition;
and in a struggle with military aspects.
All of these are expected to lead the American administration to take a fundamentally less tolerant approach towards countries that challenge the world order, and in particular the idea of liberal democracy.
"Israel's national security balance in the year 2023 is stable and positive. Relative to its enemies, Israel is strong both in terms of its military strength and in terms of its international standing. Today, the internal social resilience is also strong relative to its rivals. However, the year 2023 presents us with a series of challenges that may undermine this balance. First and foremost is the risk to social resilience, and to the system of checks and balances in Israeli democracy. In the geostrategic field, we have identified the special relationship with the US as the most significant challenge," said the director of the Hyman Institute.
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