Berlin has turbulent months behind it - and an equally explosive election in front of the chest.
What do the latest polls say?
Berlin/Munich - The first major political mood test of the year is taking place in the capital: for the second time in just under a year and a half, a Berlin election is pending.
After the election chaos in 2021, Franziska Giffey (SPD) and her red-green-red alliance have to face the voters early.
Exit: open.
Last polls before the Berlin election: three new numbers before Sunday
Shortly before the election date, the institutes published a whole bunch of polls.
A total of three surveys were presented by ZDF,
Spiegel
and
Tagesspiegel
as well as
Bild
on Thursday and Friday.
But the Sunday questions, which should not be misunderstood as a "prognosis" anyway, leave many questions unanswered.
What is the starting position a few hours before February 12th?
It seems clear: the poll favorite is the CDU of top candidate Kai Wegner.
According to all three institutes involved, the conservatives are in the lead shortly before the Berlin elections.
But how big the gap is in front of Giffey's SPD and which coalitions will ultimately be possible - there is still room for interpretation on these questions.
There is also another problem: there seem to be many dissatisfied voters in Berlin.
This makes it difficult to assess the data, as Forsa boss Manfred Güllner recently explained
to Merkur.de
.
Berlin election polls: who will win the repeat election?
Question one before the Berlin election: Who will be the strongest force?
At times, the CDU, SPD and Greens were able to raise hopes.
But that seems over.
In a survey published on Friday (February 10) by the research group elections, the
ZDF "Politbarometer"
saw the CDU relatively clearly in the lead.
The Christian Democrats received 25 percent, the SPD 21 percent, and only 17 percent the Greens around frontwoman Bettina Jarasch.
The three top dogs were a little closer together in a survey by the
Civey Institute for
Spiegel
and
Tagesspiegel
.
The pollsters measured 24 percent for the CDU and 22 percent for the SPD.
However, the Greens have to be content with 17 percent.
Wegner's CDU has the largest lead in the
Insa survey for the
image
.
25 percent for the CDU and 19 percent for the SPD mean a difference of 6 percentage points.
In this variant, the Greens are in close contact with the Giffeys Social Democrats with 18 percent.
This circumstance could theoretically also have serious consequences.
Polls before the Berlin election: Will the FDP make it into the House of Representatives?
Indirectly, however, the result of the FDP could also be decisive for the balance of power in the House of Representatives: if the Liberals are expelled from Parliament, the remaining parties will receive more seats.
The scenario is not unthinkable.
But according to the latest polls, there is certainly hope for the FDP.
According to ZDF's "Politbarometer", they range at six percent.
The Insa survey came to the same conclusion.
The Civey Institute sees the Liberals at seven percent.
The CDU in particular seemed to be looking at the FDP with suspicion recently - and possibly even hoping for an exit, as
fr.de
reported.
The FDP had had to tremble for a long time in the past state elections.
CDU | SPD | Green | left | AfD | FDP | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZDF political barometer | 25 | 21 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
Civey | 24 | 22 | 17 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
insa | 25 | 19 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
Berlin polls and the consequences: Which coalitions are possible?
If the polls can be translated more or less directly into an election result, the CDU would have the first right to form a government according to usual practice.
Theoretically, a "GroKo" with the SPD would be conceivable, but also a "Jamaica" alliance with the Greens and FDP.
If the Liberals fall out of the House of Representatives, even black-green would be a possibility.
However, the Greens and the CDU had sometimes fought violently before the Berlin election.
+
Food for your nerves: Berlin's Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey (left) and Environment Senator Bettina Jarasch taste ice cream.
(archive image)
© Fabian Sommer/dpa
In any variant, a CDU election winner could also be left behind - because the currently governing red-green-red alliance gets 49 to 50 percent of the votes, depending on the survey.
That would be enough to keep going.
And could be the more charming variant for Giffey's SPD, despite all the skepticism: As a junior partner of the CDU, Giffey would eventually have to give up the post of governing mayor.
Last Berlin polls: Explosive constellations possible - Giffey still the most popular
Explosive tactical games could be on the agenda if the Greens actually intercept the SPD and become the second strongest force behind the CDU: Then Giffey would be rid of her office one way or the other - and at the same time tip the scales: the CDU and the Greens each need the SPD for the majority in the House of Representatives.
If the Greens don't make a pact directly with the CDU.
According to the surveys, that too is at least mathematically possible.
A traffic light coalition could also be just about possible.
The voters in Berlin, however, seem to be most likely to wish for a mayor Giffey.
36 percent of the 1,151 people surveyed for the "Politbarometer" spoke out in favor of her as head of government.
Wegner received 23 percent, Jarasch only 15 percent.
In any case, many voters seem dissatisfied.
However, Jarasch wants to fight until the end of the polling stations for precisely this reason: She sees - somewhat more optimistically - "many undecided".
(
fn
)
List of rubrics: © Fabian Sommer/dpa
