A G7 summit in Hiroshima to press Russia and unite against China

G7 leaders are meeting this week in Hiroshima (western Japan) to toughen their tone against Russia 15 months after its invasion of Ukraine and adopt a common line vis-à-vis the Chinese superpower.

The three-day summit, starting this Friday, May 19, of the major industrialized democracies will cover everything from energy to artificial intelligence, but the focus will be on loopholes that allow Moscow to mitigate the impact of G7 sanctions on its economy.

Avoiding sanctions circumvention

According to the French Presidency, sanctions 'which have a cost for our economies', must be prevented at all costs from being 'circumvented for the benefit of others'. Heads of state and government should be cautious about Beijing, showing unity on Taiwan and making supply chains less dependent on China, while trying to avoid stoking tensions. It is "not an anti-Chinese G7", insisted the Elysee, wishing "a positive message" of cooperation "provided that we negotiate together".

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The G7 foreign ministers' meeting in April focused on Beijing with a warning against its "militarization activities" in the South China Sea. The ministers also insisted that there was "no change" in their position on Taiwan after President Emmanuel Macron, returning from a trip to China, said Europe should avoid being caught in "crises that are not (its own)".

Concerned about "economic security," the Hiroshima summit is expected to approve the removal of crucial supply chains from Chinese influence. Washington has already taken a firm approach to the issue, blocking Beijing's access to the most advanced semiconductors and the equipment needed to manufacture them, and has convinced Tokyo and The Hague to do the same.

'Risk reduction'

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We are looking for a multidimensional approach to our economic relations with China," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Monday. But "this approach is characterized by risk reduction and not decoupling," she said. Ursula von der Leyen cited specific examples of Chinese attempts at economic coercion targeting Lithuania, Japan and Australia. "We are the most vulnerable to coercion ... where addictions accumulate. That's why we're taking action," she added, calling key raw materials an area for action.

An unlisted member of the G7 as a supranational organization, the European Union has already recently angered Beijing by offering to supply fewer exports of sensitive technology to eight Chinese companies suspected of then forwarding these products to Russia. The Hiroshima summit is expected to recommend similar measures to close the loopholes in the sanctions that the G7 countries (the United States, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada) have imposed on Russia.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has just toured Europe, will address the summit via video conference. "I expect the key issues to be compliance with and enforcement of sanctions, especially in the non-aligned countries of the South, and the potential lowering of the oil price ceiling, which Ukraine is demanding," said Maria Snegovaya, a Russia expert at the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS) in Washington.

Non-G7 guests

An unusually long list of non-G7 guests has been established. The leaders of India, Brazil and Indonesia are among the participants. While the war in Ukraine has revived the importance of the G7, Japan and other G7 countries believe that additional efforts are needed to attract non-aligned States that are reluctant to take sides. The G20 feels all the more this need for openness as the G<> is at an impasse, China and Russia opposing any reference to the war in Ukraine.

Japan believes that China and, to a lesser extent, Russia are seeing their influence increase in the Global South thanks to economic aid and their "anti-Western messages", observes Chris Johnstone, another CSIS expert. According to Japanese officials, the G7 in Hiroshima is also expected to make a statement on nuclear disarmament, a subject dear to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who chose to organize the summit in this city ravaged by the first atomic bomb in history in 1945, while being his own electoral stronghold.