Montreal
Alberta is burning and the oil companies are shaking. According to the authorities of the Western Canadian province, there are still about fifty active fires, nearly twenty of which are out of control. A state of emergency has been declared for more than two weeks, thousands of people have been evacuated, and the giants of black gold have reduced or interrupted their production. According to Rystad Energy, 2.7 million barrels per day are at risk, out of the approximately 3.2 million barrels extracted in the province from oil sands or conventionally. The Western Province is home to the world's third-largest oil reserves, behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Hydrocarbons are a key sector for the economy of the province and more broadly of the country.
According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), investment in oil and natural gas extraction will exceed pre-Covid levels this year, increasing by 11% to $40 billion. "Alberta's energy exports hit a record high last year at $159 billion, accounting for three-quarters of the province's merchandise export," ATB Financial said. According to the Alberta Financial Corporation, the disaster could lead to a decline in Canadian GDP of 0.1% to 0.3% for the month of May, given the significant weight of the industry. The impact will be much greater in Alberta, where fires have already destroyed 1 million hectares of forest since the beginning of the year and more than 275 businesses and homes.
High health risks to residents
If the rains facilitated the work of firefighters last week, the authorities remain very cautious about the evolution of the situation. Smoke prevents Canadairs and helicopters from acting on fires. Environment Canada meteorologists have also warned in several bulletins of the high health risks to residents of Edmonton, Calgary and Fort McMurray and called on residents to stay home. Beyond the losses for the oil industry, it is also the impact on crops that is causing concern. Crops suffer from smoke and lack of moisture. Seven years almost to the day after 2,500 homes were destroyed in the historic wildfires in Fort McMurray, the oil sands mecca, Albertans are reliving trauma.
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The city's 100,000 residents were evacuated. The lessons of the Fort McMurray fires, due to poor forest maintenance, have not been learned. The gold lobby is multiplying millions of dollars in advertisements to promote its efforts in the green transition, but takes little action to protect Alberta from an environmental disaster caused by oil fires. It remains to be seen if they will be sanctioned by Albertans this Monday in the province's general election, who could opt for a change in economic policy. According to the latest polls, the United Conservative Party (UCP), currently in power, is predicted to win.
