On the same day that Horacio Rodríguez Larreta confirmed that this week the PRO candidate to succeed him in the Head of Government of the City will be known, Clarín agreed to an "almost official" survey that anticipates how the fight between the two yellow contenders is coming: local ministers Jorge Macri and Fernán Quirós. It is remembered: in the party they announced that it will be precisely from three polls that will decide the candidate.
The consultants that will bring their numbers will be Aresco (telephone survey), Isonomía (face-to-face and telephone) and Trespuntozero (online). But this newspaper had access to another work, from a firm that also measures regularly for the City: CB. That is why it could be described as "almost official".
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Between May 20 and 24, the consultancy led by analyst Cristian Buttié conducted an online survey of 1,245 cases, with +/- 2.8% margin of error. He evaluated the main leaders of the district (in addition to Jorge Macri and Quirós) in the field of images, electoral floors and ceilings, and three scenarios of PASO, changing the offer of the PRO.
Although in the first two cases, it was the Minister of Health Quirós (supported by Larreta and Elisa Carrió) who showed better numbers, the balance is tilted in favor of Jorge Macri (endorsed by his cousin Mauricio, among others), because he prevails in the two central contests: in a PASO that includes both and when they are measured against Martín Lousteau (he will go to that internal in the name of radicalism) he is the one who takes the wider advantage.
Latest CB survey: image of the main Buenos Aires leaders.
In the table of images, a hypothesis that somehow justified the launch of Quirós is confirmed: from the praise he garnered during the Covid pandemic, the Minister of Health has the best combination in this ranking. 52.9% positive and only 24.7% negative.
The figures are clearly higher than those of Jorge Macri, who offers +38% and - 44.6%. That is, it reaps more rejections than support and is below other Buenos Aires leaders such as Lousteau (+ 42.2% and - 45.6%)), Ricardo López Murphy (+ 40.5% and - 42.2%) and Graciela Ocaña (+ 38.2% and - 39.8%)). These last two are also launched for the internal of Together for Change in CABA.
Electoral numbers
As for the electoral potential, another conjecture of Larretismo is also ratified in the CB survey. Quirós is the one with the most "ceiling", that is, the one with the most chances of growing: 51.5%, since it combines 15.7% of safe vote and 35.8% of probable vote.
Jorge Macri follows closely. Ceiling of 45.6%, but part of a higher floor: 18%, to which adds 27.6% of probable vote.
Latest CB survey: floors and ceilings of the main leaders of Buenos Aires.
Then comes the more direct electoral measurement. It is a PASO scenario that offers six JxC candidates, including Jorge Macri and Quirós. The Minister of Government prevails with 18.6%, against 14.9% of Lousteau and 13.2% of Quirós. They complete López Murphy with 7.8%, Roberto García Moritán with 4.3% and Ocaña with 3.5%. Total alliance: 62.3%.
Latest CB survey: PASO scenario in the City.
This, added to other numbers that Clarín was also publishing, explain why it is almost taken for granted that Jorge Macri will be the chosen one, which (some hope) could begin to decompress the fight between Larreta and the other Macri (Mauricio).
Of the rest of the spaces, the Frente de Todos reaches 20.9% (Leandro Santoro exceeds with 15.6% Matías Lammens -3.9%- and Elizabeth Gómez Alcorta -1.4%-), the libertarian Ramiro Marra adds 5.9% and Gabriel Solano, of the FIT, 2.7%. Between whites and undecided complete with 8 points.
Last CB survey: PASO scenario with Jorge Macri as a variant of the PRO in CABA.
Last CB survey: scenario of PASO with Quirós as a variant of the PRO in CABA.
In the two other hypotheses PASO Jorge Macri is also better off, because although Quirós also beats Lousteau in a head-to-head, the former mayor of Vicente López does so by a greater difference: 28.1% to 23.5%, against 25.2% to 23.2% of the Minister of Health.
In both cases the potential of JxC is still maintained: Santoro is around 20 points and Marra is close to 8.
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